What is COMSovereign Holding Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
COMSovereign Holding Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
COMSovereign Holding (COMSovereign Holding) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
6890 E Sunrise Drive, Suite 120-506, Tucson, AZ, USA, 85750
COMSovereign Holding Corp is a provider of telecom solutions to network operators, mobile device carriers, governmental units and other enterprises world wide. The company offers Telecom and Network Products and Solutions, Wireless Transport Solutions , Edge Compute Capable 4G LTE and 5G Network in a Box and Tethered Drones and Aerostats. The company generates maximum revenue from North America.
Executives
| Billy Joe White |
director |
191 OTTO ST., PORT TOWNSEND WA 98368 |
| David Arthur Knight |
officer: Interim CEO |
4461 E 79TH STREET, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46250 |
| Brent M Davies |
director |
5965 SOUTH 900 EAST SUITE 350, MURRAY UT 84121 |
| Frances M. Jandjel |
officer: CFO & Executive Vice President |
5000 QUORUM DRIVE SUITE 400, DALLAS TX 75254 |
| Dustin H. Mcintire |
officer: Chief Technology Officer |
5300 VIA ANDREA, NEWBURY CA 91320 |
| Brian M Kelly |
officer: Exec VP for Business Dev |
2445 FIFTH AVENUE, SUITE 450, SAN DIEGO CA 92101 |
| Wade Martin R Iii |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
100 ROWLAND WAY, SUITE 300, NOVATO CA 94945 |
| Harold Marion Patterson |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
5000 QUORUM DRIVE, SUITE 400, DALLAS TX 75254 |
| Kaumudi Kay Kapoor |
director |
9814 POTOMAC MANORS DRIVE, POTOMAC MD 20854 |
| Kevin Sherlock |
officer: General Counsel and Secretary |
4605 N PASEO AQUIMURI, TUCSON AZ 85750 |
| Mohan Rao Tammisetti |
officer: SVP Engineering |
25643 SOUTH VILLAGE DRIVE, SOUTH RIDING VA 20152 |
| David Aguilar |
director |
12213 CHAPEL ROAD, CLIFTON VA 20124 |
| Daniel L. Hodges |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
6600 NORTH EAGLE RIDGE DRIVE, TUSCON AZ 85750 |
| Brian T. Mihelich |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
3028 AVONDALE, THE COLONY TX 75056 |
| James A. Marks |
director |
7 WIRT STREET NW, LEESBURG VA 20176 |
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