What is Canterbury Park Holding Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Canterbury Park Holding Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Canterbury Park Holding (Canterbury Park Holding) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
1100 Canterbury Road, Shakopee, MN, USA, 55379
Canterbury Park Holding Corp is in the business of pari-mutuel wagering on horse races and unbanked card games at its canterbury park racetrack and card casino facility in Minnesota. The company has four operating segments. The horse racing segment represents pari-mutuel wagering operations on simulcast and lives horse races; the Card Casino segment represents unbanked card operations; the food and beverage segment includes concessions, catering, and events services provided at the Racetrack; and the development segment represents its real estate development operations. The firm generates a majority of its revenue from the Card Casino segment.
Executives
| Damon E. Schramm |
director |
C/O EVINE LIVE INC., 6740 SHADY OAK ROAD, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 553444 |
| Peter Ahn |
director |
1100 CANTERBURY ROAD SOUTH, SHAKOPEE MN 55379 |
| Sampson Family Real Estate Holdings, Llc |
10 percent owner |
930 LAKE SUSAN HILLS DR., CHANHASSEN MN 55317 |
| Mark Chronister |
director |
1100 CANTERBURY ROAD SOUTH, SHAKOPEE MN 55379 |
| Maureen Hooley Bausch |
director |
1100 CANTERBURY PARK RD, SHAKOPEE MN 55379 |
| John Stefan Himle |
director |
1100 CANTERBURY PARK RD, SHAKOPEE MN 55379 |
| Randy James Dehmer |
officer: CFO/Vice President of Finance |
1100 CANTERBURY PARK RD, SHAKOPEE MN 55379 |
| Dale H Schenian |
director |
|
| Burton F Dahlberg |
director |
1100 CANTERBURY ROAD, SHAKOPEE MN 55379 |
| Robert Wolf |
officer: VP of Finance |
1100 CANTERBURY RD., SHAKOPEE MN 55379 |
| Daniel J. Kennedy |
officer: Senior VP of Operations |
1100 CANTERBURY ROAD, SHAKOPEE MN 55379 |
| Carin J Offerman |
director |
1100 CANTERBURY ROAD, SHAKOPEE MN 55379 |
| Curtis A Sampson |
director |
PO BOX 777, S MAIN ST, HECTOR MN 55342 |
| Michael Hochman |
officer: Vice President - Card Casino |
1100 CANTERBURY ROAD, SHAKOPEE MN 55379 |
| Randall D Sampson |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: President, CEO & General Mgr |
1100 CANTERBURY ROAD, SHAKOPEE MN 55379 |
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