GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Crescera Capital Acquisition Corp (OTCPK:CREEF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Crescera Capital Acquisition (Crescera Capital Acquisition) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 2022. Start your Free Trial

What is Crescera Capital Acquisition Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Crescera Capital Acquisition Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Crescera Capital Acquisition Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Crescera Capital Acquisition's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Crescera Capital Acquisition (Crescera Capital Acquisition) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Diversified Financial Services » Crescera Capital Acquisition Corp (OTCPK:CREEF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SWSS AEAE GGAAF NUBI ARTE GTAC RFAC HAIA YOTA HPLT PBAJ SVMB SCRM CVII AAC GHIX ALCC AACT DWAC SAGA
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
Rua Aníbal de Mendonca, 27, 2nd floor, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, BRA, 22410-050
Website
https://cresceraspac.com
Crescera Capital Acquisition Corp is a blank check company.
Executives
Bank Of America Corp /de/ other: Former 10% Owner BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATE CENTER, 100 N TRYON ST, CHARLOTTE NC 28255
Bofa Securities, Inc. other: Former 10% Owner 100 N TRYON ST, NC1-007-14-30, CHARLOTTE NC 28255
Wolverine Asset Management Llc 10 percent owner 175 WEST JACKSON, SUITE 340, CHICAGO IL 60604
Pavarina Denise Pauli director C/O CRESCERA CAPITAL ACQUISITION CORP., RUA ANIBAL DE MENDONCA, 27, 2ND FLOOR,, RIO DE JANEIRO, RJ D5 2410-050
Danvila Jaime Cardoso director C/O CRESCERA CAPITAL ACQUISITION CORP., RUA ANIBAL DE MENDONCA, 27, 2ND FLOOR,, RIO DE JANEIRO, RJ D5 2410-050
Daniel Arthur Borghi director C/O CRESCERA CAPITAL ACQUISITION CORP., RUA ANIBAL DE MENDONCA, 27, 2ND FLOOR,, RIO DE JANEIRO, RJ D5 2410-050
Cc Sponsor Llc 10 percent owner RUA ANIBAL DE MENDONCA, 27, 2ND FLOOR, RIO DE JANEIRO, RJ D5 22410-050
Carvalho Laura Guarana officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O CRESCERA CAPITAL ACQUISITION CORP., RUA ANIBAL DE MENDONCA, 27, 2ND FLOOR,, RIO DE JANEIRO, RJ D5 2410-050
Sadir Prieto Rossana Isabel director C/O CRESCERA CAPITAL ACQUISITION CORP., RUA ANIBAL DE MENDONCA, 27, 2ND FLOOR,, RIO DE JANEIRO, RJ D5 2410-050
Felipe Samuel Argalji officer: Chief Executive Officer C/O CRESCERA CAPITAL ACQUISITION CORP., RUA ANIBAL DE MENDONCA, 27, 2ND FLOOR,, RIO DE JANEIRO, RJ D5 2410-050
Dias Fonseca Da Silva Flavio director C/O CRESCERA CAPITAL ACQUISITION CORP., RUA ANIBAL DE MENDONCA, 27, 2ND FLOOR, RIO DE JANEIRO D5 22410-050