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CSS Industries (CSS Industries) Predictability Rank


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What is CSS Industries Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CSS Industries Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

CSS Industries Predictability Rank Related Terms

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CSS Industries (CSS Industries) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » CSS Industries Inc (NYSE:CSS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
ZAGG ELA TA PRTY BNED TCS BLNK MOHO WCRS BGFV ORLY AZO BBY TSE:9843 BSP:MGLU3 TSCO ULTA SZSE:002024 GPC ADX:ADNOCDIST
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
450 Plymouth Road, Suite 300, Plymouth Meeting, PA, USA, 19462
Website
https://www.cssindustries.com
CSS Industries Inc is a consumer products company. It is focused on the seasonal, gift and craft categories. The company engages in the creative development, manufacture, procurement, distribution, and sale of products with an omni-channel approach focused primarily on mass market retailers.
Executives
Philip R Broenniman director C/O CSS INDUSTRIES, INC., 450 PLYMOUTH ROAD, SUITE 300, PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462
Robert E Chappell director C/O GLATFELTER, 96 S GEORGE ST STE 420, YORK PA 17401
Keith W Pfeil officer: Exec. VP and CFO GLOBUS MEDICAL, INC., 2560 GENERAL ARMISTEAD AVENUE, AUDUBON PA 19403
Steven W Eck officer: VP - Finance and Accounting C/O CSS INDUSTRIES, INC., 450 PLYMOUTH ROAD, SUITE 300, PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462
Scott A Beaumont director C/O CSS INDUSTRIES, INC., 450 PLYMOUTH ROAD, SUITE 300, PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462
John J Gavin director GMS INC., 100 CRESCENT CENTRE PARKWAY, SUITE 800, TUCKER GA 30084
James E Ksansnak director ARAMARK CORPORATION, 1101 MARKET STREET, PHILADELPHIA PA 19107