Citi Trends (Citi Trends) Predictability Rank

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What is Citi Trends Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Citi Trends Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Citi Trends (Citi Trends) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Citi Trends Inc (NAS:CTRN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WW2:Germany

Address

104 Coleman Boulevard, Savannah, GA, USA, 31408

Website

https://www.cititrends.com

Citi Trends Inc is a retailer of urban fashion apparel and accessories in the United States. The company offers apparel, including fashion sportswear for men and women, as well as children, such as newborns, infants, toddlers, boys, and girls; accessories comprising handbags, jewelry, footwear, belts, intimate apparel, scrubs, and sleepwear; and functional and decorative home products, as well as beauty products, books, and toys.

Executives

Fund 1 Investments, Llc	10 percent owner	100 CARR 115, UNIT 1900, RINCON PR 00677
Jonathan Duskin	director	MACELLUM CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, LLC, 99 HUDSON STREET, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013
Pleasant Lake Partners Llc	10 percent owner	100 CARR 115 UNIT 1900, RINCON PR 00677
Pleasant Lake Onshore Feeder Fund Lp	10 percent owner	100 CARR 115 UNIT 1900, RINCON PR 00677
Vivek Bhargava	officer: SVP, Supply Chain Operations	104 COLEMAN BOULEVARD, SAVANNAH GA 31408
Ivy D Council	officer: SR VP of HR, Chief Compl Offcr	C/O CITI TRENDS, INC., 102 FAHM STREET, SAVANNAH GA 31401
David N. Makuen	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O FIVE BELOW, INC., 1818 MARKET STREET, SUITE 2000, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Heather L Plutino	officer: EVP and CFO	104 COLEMAN BOULEVARD, SAVANNAH GA 31408
Brian Carney	director	5555 DARROW RD, HUDSON OH 44236
Laurens Goff	director	C/O CITI TRENDS, INC., 104 COLEMAN BLVD., SAVANNAH GA 31408
Jessica Berkowitz	officer: SVP, Planning and Allocation	104 COLEMAN BOULEVARD, SAVANNAH GA 31408
Kenneth Duane Seipel	director	26972 BURBANK, FOOTHILL RANCH CA 92610
Christina M Francis	director	104 COLEMAN BOULEVARD, SAVANNAH GA 31408
Lisa A. Powell	officer: Chief Merchandising Officer	C/O CITI TRENDS, INC., 104 COLEMAN BLVD., SAVANNAH GA 31408
Charles J. Hynes	officer: Senior VP - Supply Chain	CITI TRENDS, INC., 104 COLEMAN BLVD., SAVANNAH GA 31408