CTS (CTS) Predictability Rank

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What is CTS Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CTS Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CTS (CTS) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » CTS Corp (NYSE:CTS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

XT1:Germany

Address

4925 Indiana Avenue, Lisle, IL, USA, 60532

Website

https://www.ctscorp.com

CTS Corp operates in the electronics industry. The company is a global manufacturer of Sensors, Electronic components, and Actuators. It designs, manufactures, and sells a broad line of sensors, electronic components, and actuators mainly to original equipment manufacturers (OEM) for the aerospace and defense, industrial, information technology, medical, telecommunications, and transportation markets. Geographically, it derives a majority of its revenue from the United States and also has a presence in China; Singapore; the Czech Republic; Taiwan and other countries.

Executives

Randy Lee Stone	director	974 CENTRE ROAD, CRP 730, WILMINGTON DE 19805
Kieran M O'sullivan	director, officer: President & CEO	2375 CABOT DRIVE, LISLE IL 60532
Martin Baumeister	officer: Senior Vice President	4925 INDIANA AVENUE, LISLE IL 60532
Michael Edward Murray	officer: Senior Vice President	4925 INDIANA AVENUE, LISLE IL 60532
Ye Jane Li	director	200 FLYNN ROAD, CAMARILLO CA 93012-8790
Ashish Agrawal	officer: CFO	2375 CABOT DRIVE, LISLE IL 60525
Thomas Michael White	officer: Controller and PAO	4925 INDIANA AVENUE, LISLE IL 60532
Scott D'angelo	officer: VP & Secretary	4925 INDIANA AVENUE, LISLE IL 60532
Donna Costello	director	17 STEWART COURT, WESTWOOD NJ 07675
Alfonso G Zulueta	director	4925 INDIANA AVE, LISLE IL 60532
Gordon Hunter	director	25950 ELENA RD, LOS ALTOS HILLS CA 94022
Diana M Murphy	director	C/O LANDSTAR SYSTEM INC, 13410 SUTTON PARK DR S, JACKSONVILLE FL 32224
William S Johnson	director	C/O CABOT MICROELECTRONICS, 870 N. COMMONS DR, AURORA IL 60504
Luis Francisco Machado	officer: VP, General Counsel & Sec.	1142 W. BEARDSLEY AVENUE, ELKHART IN 46514
Rajeeb K Nath	officer: Vice President	1142 WEST BEARDSLEY AVENUE, ELKHART IN 46514