Citrix Systems (Citrix Systems) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1995. Start your Free Trial

What is Citrix Systems Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Citrix Systems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Citrix Systems Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Citrix Systems's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Citrix Systems (Citrix Systems) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Citrix Systems Inc (NAS:CTXS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

851 West Cypress Creek Road, Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA, 33309

Website

https://www.citrix.com

Citrix Systems provides virtualization software, including Virtual Apps and Desktops for desktop virtualization and Citrix Virtual Apps for application virtualization. The company also provides Citrix Endpoint Management for mobile device management and Citrix ADC for application delivery and Citrix SDWAN for routing, security, and WAN monitoring.

Executives

Jason Alexander Smith	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O CITRIX SYSTEMS, INC., 851 WEST CYPRESS CREEK ROAD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Michael Arenth	officer: EVP, SaaS Strategy	C/O CITRIX SYSTEMS, INC., 851 WEST CYPRESS CREEK ROAD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
David J Henshall	officer: Senior Vice President and CFO	18880 HOMESTEAD ROAD, CUPERTINO CA 95014
Sridhar Mullapudi	officer: EVP, Product Management	C/O CITRIX SYSTEMS, INC., 851 WEST CYPRESS CREEK ROAD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Arlen Shenkman	officer: EVP & CFO	C/O CITRIX SYSTEMS, INC., 851 WEST CYRESS CREEK ROAD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Mark J Ferrer	officer: EVP, Chief Revenue Officer	45025 AVIATION DR, STE 300, DULLES VA 20166
Mark J. Schmitz	officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer	C/O CITRIX SYSTEMS, INC., 851 WEST CYPRESS CREEK ROAD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Timothy A. Minahan	officer: CMO	13960 HAYSTACK LANE, MILTON GA 30004
Hector Lima	officer: EVP, Customer Experience	C/O CITRIX SYSTEMS, INC., 851 WEST CYPRESS CREEK ROAD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Antonio G. Gomes	officer: SVP & General Counsel	345 HARVARD STREET, UNIT 2AB, CAMBRIDGE MA 02138
Paul J. Hough	officer: SVP & Chief Product Officer	851 WEST CYPRESS CREEK ROAD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309
Jessica Soisson	officer: VP & Corporate Controller	9836 EQUUS CIRCLE, BOYNTON BEACH FL 33472
W. Joseph Kim	officer: EVP & Chief Technology Officer	7171, AUSTIN TX 78735-6140
Donna Nappen Kimmel	officer: SVP & Chief People Officer	529 PLEASANT STREET, MS B-7, ATTLEBORO MA 02703
Knowling Robert E Jr	director	C/O HEWLETT-PACKARD CO, 3000 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304