California Water Service Group (California Water Service Group) Predictability Rank

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What is California Water Service Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

California Water Service Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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California Water Service Group (California Water Service Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » California Water Service Group (NYSE:CWT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

WT5:Germany

Address

1720 North First Street, San Jose, CA, USA, 95112

Website

https://www.calwatergroup.com

California Water Service Group is a U.S. water and utilities holding company based in California. The company engages in the production, treatment, storage, distribution, and sale of water for various uses. The firm operates through its subsidiaries, which can be divided between regulated and unregulated businesses. The regulated public utilities subsidiaries operate in California, New Mexico, Washington, and Hawaii. The unregulated subsidiaries provide water utility services to private companies and municipalities. The company derives the majority of its revenue from its operations in California and, overall, from residential customers.

Executives

Thomas M Krummel	director	C/O CALIFORNIA WATER SERVICE GROUP, 1720 N. FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95118
Michelle R Mortensen	officer: Corporate Secretary	1720 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95112
Jeffrey Kightlinger	director	1720 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95112
Charles R. Patton	director	1 RIVERSIDE PLAZA, COLUMBUS OH 43215
David B Healey	officer: VP, CEO and Treasurer	C/O CALIFORNIA WATER SERVICE COMPANY, 1720 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95112
Robert J Kuta	officer: VP, Engineering	1720 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95112
Shelly Marian Esque	director	1720 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95112
Yvonne Aida Maldonado	director	1720 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95112
Carol M Pottenger	director	1720 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95020
Gregory E Aliff	director	1720 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95112
Peter C Nelson	director	C/O CALIFORNIA WATER SERVICE GROUP, 1720 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95112
Lester A Snow	director	C/O CALIFORNIA WATER SERVICE GROUP, 1720 N FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95112
Patricia K Wagner	director	1720 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95020
Scott L Morris	director	1411 E MISSION AVE, SPOKANE WA 99202
Shawn C Bunting	officer: VP Corporate Council	1720 NORTH FIRST STREET, SAN JOSE CA 95112