Cytokinetics (Cytokinetics) Predictability Rank

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What is Cytokinetics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cytokinetics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cytokinetics (Cytokinetics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Cytokinetics Inc (NAS:CYTK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

KK3A:Germany

Address

350 Oyster Point Boulevard, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080

Website

https://www.cytokinetics.com

Cytokinetics Inc is a biotechnology company that develops muscle biology-driven treatments for diseases characterized by reduced muscle function, muscle weakness, and fatigue. The company develops treatments for diseases such as amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, heart failure, spinal muscular atrophy, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. The treatment is based on small molecules specifically engineered to increase muscle function and contractility. The company is developing muscle-directed investigational medicines that may potentially improve the health span of people with devastating cardiovascular and neuromuscular diseases of impaired muscle function.

Executives

Robert I Blum	officer: EVP, Corp. Development & CBO	280 EAST GRAND AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
John T Henderson	director	320 WAKARA WAY, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84108
Fady Ibraham Malik	officer: SVP Research & Early Dev	280 EAST GRAND AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Wendall Wierenga	director	12790 EL CAMINO REAL, C/O NEUROCRINE BIOSCIENCES, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Muna Bhanji	director	C/O CYTOKINETICS, INCORPORATED, 280 EAST GRAND AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Robert Wong	officer: VP, Chief Accounting Officer	280 EAST GRAND AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Ching Jaw	officer: SVP Finance & CFO	280 EAST GRAND AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Sandford D Smith	director	C/O ARIAD PHARMACEUTICALS INC, 26 LANDSDOWNE STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
B Lynne Parshall	director	2855 GAZELLE COURT, CARLSBAD CA 92010
Santo J Costa	director
Kaye Edward M. Md	director	3450 MONTE VILLA PARKWAY, BOTHELL WA 98011
Robert Arthur Harrington	director	C/O CYTOKINETICS, INCORPORATED, 350 OYSTER POINT BLVD., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Mark A Schlossberg	officer: SVP - Legal & General Counsel	C/O IMPAX LABORATORIES, INC., 30831 HUNTWOOD AVENUE, HAYWARD CA 94544
David Cragg	officer: V.P., Human Resources	280 EAST GRAND AVENUE, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
L Patrick Gage	director	C/O NEOSE TECHNOLOGIES, 102 WITMER RD, HORSHAM PA 19044