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DatChat (DatChat) Predictability Rank


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What is DatChat Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

DatChat Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

DatChat Predictability Rank Related Terms

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DatChat (DatChat) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » DatChat Inc (NAS:DATS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
AUUD KBNT MYSZ BRQSF MWRK NOGN FRGT WDLF IONI AVOI CRM XTER:SAP INTU NOW UBER CDNS SHOP WDAY XPAR:DSY ROP
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
204 Nielsen Street, New Brunswick, NJ, USA, 08901
Website
https://www.datchat.com
DatChat Inc is a blockchain, cybersecurity, and social media company that not only focuses on protecting privacy on personal devices, but also protects user information after it is shared with others. Its mobile messaging application is called DatChat Messenger which is a free messaging application.
Executives
Darin M Myman officer: Chief Executive Officer BIGSTRING CORPORATION, 3 HARDING ROAD, SUITE F, RED BANK NJ 07701
Brett Blumberg officer: Chief Financial Officer 204 NEILSON STREET, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08901
Wayne Linsley director 1 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, SUITE 1039, NEW YORK NY 10020
Carly Schumer director 65 CHURCH STREET, 2ND FLOOR, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08901
Dan Zeno officer: Chief Operating Officer 65 CHURCH STREET, 2ND FLOOR, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08901
Joseph Eugene Nelson director 65 CHURCH STREET, 2ND FLOOR, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08901
Vadim Mats officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER 285 GRAND AVENUE, ENGLEWOOD NJ 07631
Peter Shelus director, officer: CHIEF TECHNOLOGY OFFICER 65 CHURCH STREET, 2ND FLOOR, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08901
Gabriel Daniels officer: CHIEF INFORMATION OFFICER 65 CHURCH STREET, 2ND FLOOR, NEW BRUNSWICK NJ 08901