BNY Mellon Alcentra Global Creditome 2024 Target Term Fund Predictability Rank

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What is BNY Mellon Alcentra Global Creditome 2024 Target Term Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BNY Mellon Alcentra Global Creditome 2024 Target Term Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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BNY Mellon Alcentra Global Creditome 2024 Target Term Fund Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » BNY Mellon Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund Inc (NYSE:DCF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

c/o BNY Mellon Investment Adviser, Inc., 240 Greenwich Street, New York, NY, USA, 10286

Website

https://www.bnymellonim.com

BNY Mellon Alcentra Global Credit Income 2024 Target Term Fund Inc is a diversified closed-end management investment company. Its investment objectives are to seek high current income and to return at least the Fund's original NAV to holders of record of common shares on or about the termination date.

Executives

Bushra Mannan	other: Director of BNYMIA (1)	C/O BNY MELLON INVESTMENT ADVISER, INC., 240 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10286
Irene Papadoulis	other: Director of BNYMIA (1)	C/O BNY MELLON INVESTMENT ADVISER, INC., 240 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10286
Ping Jiang	other: Dir. of Invest. Oversight (1)	C/O BNY MELLON INVESTMENT ADVISER, INC., 240 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10286
Bradley J Skapyak	officer: President	200 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10166
Joseph Martella	officer: VP	C/O BNY MELLON INVESTMENT ADVISER, INC., 240 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10288
Daniel Goldstein	officer: VP	240 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10286
Robert J. Pomeroy	officer: VP; Investment Adviser	C/O BNY MELLON INVESTMENT ADVISER, INC., 240 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10286
Vinay Patel	other: Head of Finance of Sub-Adviser	200 PARK AVE, NEW YORK CITY NY 10166
Alcentra Ny, Llc	other: Sub-Adviser	200 PARK AVENUE, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10166
Brandon Chao	other: Portfolio Mgr of Sub-Adviser	200 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK CITY NY 10166
Laurence Raven	other: Portfolio Mgr of Sub-Adviser	200 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK CITY NY 10166
Ross Curran	other: Portfolio Mgr of Sub-Adviser	200 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK CITY NY 10166
Cathy Bevan	other: Portfolio Mgr of Sub-Adviser	200 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK CITY NY 10166
Daire Wheeler	other: Portfolio Mgr of Sub-Adviser	200 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK CITY NY 10166
Eric Larsson	other: Portfolio Mgr of Sub-Adviser	C/O ALCENTRA NY LLC, 200 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK CITY NY 10166