Audeo Oncology (Audeo Oncology) Predictability Rank

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What is Audeo Oncology Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Audeo Oncology Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Audeo Oncology (Audeo Oncology) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Audeo Oncology Inc (DELISTED:AURX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.audeooncology.com

Audeo Oncology, Inc was incorporated in Delaware in June 2012. It is a late stage biopharmaceutical company utilizing its Hyaluronic Acid Chemotransport Technology, or HyACT, to target cancer drugs preferentially to tumor cells to enhance drug activity. HyACT is a flexible platform technology designed to increase the effectiveness of anti-cancer agents without increasing treatment toxicity. It seeks to reduce the risks related to drug development by using known anti-cancer drugs, and aim to enhance their commercial value by improving their effectiveness. The Company's lead HyACT product candidate, HA-Irinotecan, is currently in a pivotal Phase III clinical trial for metastatic colorectal cancer, or mCRC. HA-Irinotecan is also in an investigator-sponsored Phase II clinical trial for small cell lung cancer, or SCLC. It also has two other HyACT product candidates that have successfully completed Phase I clinical trials. In addition to its current clinical-stage product candidates, it aims to develop a pipeline of product candidates by exploiting its significant know-how in cancer stem cell biology and cancer metabolism combined with the Versatile Assembly on Stable Templates, or VAST, molecule drug discovery technology that it will in-license. The Company's lead product candidate is HyACT-targeted irinotecan, or HA-Irinotecan, for the treatment of mCRC. Irinotecan, which is marketed in major markets by Pfizer as Camptosar, is an off-patent chemotherapy drug widely used in the treatment of mCRC. Government authorities in the United States (including federal, state and local authorities) and in other countries extensively regulate the manufacture, research, clinical development, labeling, packaging, distribution, post-approval monitoring and reporting, advertising, promotion, export and import of pharmaceutical products, such as those it is developing.