What is Dais Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Dais Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Dais (DLYT) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
11552 Prosperous Drive, Odessa, FL, USA, 33556
Dais Corp is a us-based nano-structured polymer technology materials company. Business activity of the firm includes development and distribution of nanotechnology-based applications for heating, cooling, water treatment, and energy storage. It offers ConsERV product, which is a fixed plate energy recovery ventilator. In addition, it is developing other nano-structured polymer technology applications, including NanoClear, a water clean-up process useful in the creation of potable water from contaminated water, including industrial process wastewater, sea, brackish or wastewater, and NanoAir, a water-based, no fluorocarbon-based, refrigerant dehumidification, humidification, heating and cooling system.
Executives
| Robert Schwartz |
director |
11552 PROSPEROUS DRIVE, ODESSA FL 33556 |
| Mccollum Ira William Jr. |
director |
11552 PROSPEROUS DRIVE, ODESSA FL 33556 |
| Thomas E Tuner |
director |
11552 PROSPEROUS DRIVE, ODESSA FL 33556 |
| Judith M Cortina |
officer: Treasurer |
|
| Eliza X Wang |
director |
11552 PROSPEROUS DRIVE, ODESSA FL 33556 |
| Soex (hong Kong) Industry & Investment Co., Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
ROOM 11-2-1103 11/F KOWLOON BLDG 555, NATHAN ROAD, MONGKOK KL K3 00000 |
| Conner-boyd Joyce Collette |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
11452 PEMBROOK RUN, ESTERO FL 33928 |
| Leonard Samuels |
10 percent owner |
|
| Judith Carolyn Norstrud |
officer: CFO and Treasurer |
15837 TRACKSIDE DRIVE, ODESSA FL 33556 |
| David Longacre |
officer: VP of Sales and Marketing |
4104 WEST MCKAY AVENUE, TAMPA FL 33609 |
| Michael M Gostomski |
10 percent owner |
|
| Harold Mandelbaum |
officer: CFO & Treasurer |
315 EAST 70TH STREET #1E, NEW YORK NY 10021 |
| Patricia Kelly Tangredi |
10 percent owner |
10416 PONTOFINO CIRCLE, TRINITY FL 34655 |
| Timothy Tangredi |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: President & CEO |
10416 PONTOFINO CIRCLE, TRINITY FL 34655 |
| Linda Ehrenberg |
other: Spouse of Scott G. Ehenberg |
1140 BAYTOWN DRIVE APT. 17, CHAMPAGNE IL 61822 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
DLYT has been successfully added to your