Physicians Realty Trust (Physicians Realty Trust) Predictability Rank

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What is Physicians Realty Trust Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Physicians Realty Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Physicians Realty Trust (Physicians Realty Trust) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Physicians Realty Trust (NYSE:DOC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

42O:Germany

Address

309 North Water Street, Suite 500, Milwaukee, WI, USA, 53202

Website

https://www.docreit.com

Physicians Realty Trust is a company belonging to the United States healthcare sector. It acquires, develops, and leases healthcare properties to physicians, hospitals, and healthcare delivery systems. Its portfolio includes medical office buildings, outpatient treatment and diagnostic facilities, physician group practice clinics, ambulatory surgery centres, and specialty hospitals. The company also alternatively invests in life science facilities, senior housing properties, skilled nursing facilities, and treatment centers.

Executives

Laurie P Becker	officer: SVP-Controller	309 N WATER STREET, SUITE 500, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Albert Jr Black	director	3333 LEE PARKWAY STE 100, DALLAS TX 75219
Tommy G Thompson	director	7711 CARONDELET, ST. LOUIS MO 63105
John T Thomas	director, officer: President and CEO	309 N. WATER STREET, SUITE 500, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Bradley D. Page	officer: Senior VP & General Counsel	309 N. WATER STREET, SUITE 500, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Pamela Shelley-kessler	director	300 ESPLANADE DR #1860, OXNARD CA 93036
Richard A. Weiss	director	309 N. WATER STREET, SUITE 500, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
William Mark Dukes	officer: SVP-Asset Management	309 N WATER STREET, SUITE 500, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Ava Lias-booker	director	309 N WATER STREET, SUITE 500, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Amy M Hall	officer: SVP-Leasing&Physician Strategy	309 N. WATER STREET, SUITE 500, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Daniel M Klein	officer: Senior VP-Deputy CIO	309 N. WATER STREET, SUITE 500, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Jeffrey Theiler	officer: Executive Vice President & CFO	309 N. WATER STREET, SUITE 500, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Stanton D. Anderson	director	309 N. WATER STREET, SUITE 500, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
John W. Lucey	officer: Senior Vice President	309 N. WATER STREET, SUITE 500, MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Mark D. Theine	officer: Senior VP of Asset/Investmets	250 E. WISCONSIN AVENUE, SUITE 1900, MILWAUKEE WI 53202