Diamondrock Hospitality Co (Diamondrock Hospitality Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Diamondrock Hospitality Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Diamondrock Hospitality Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Diamondrock Hospitality Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Diamondrock Hospitality Co (Diamondrock Hospitality Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Diamondrock Hospitality Co (NYSE:DRH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

DRHpA.PFD:USA

Address

2 Bethesda Metro Center, Suite 1400, Bethesda, MD, USA, 20814

Website

https://www.drhc.com

Diamondrock Hospitality Company is a real estate investment trust that owns lodging properties. Its business is to acquire, own, manage, and renovate full-service hotel properties in the United States. It operates in cities such as Chicago, Boston, New York, Denver and others. Within DiamondRock's holdings, the majority of the hotel brands include Marriott, Starwood, and Hilton. The revenue is divided between room, food and beverage, and other. The room segment contributes the majority of the revenue. The firm's customers include leisure transient, business transient, and group customers.

Executives

Mark W Brugger	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O DIAMONDROCK HOSPITALITY COMPANY, 10400 FERNWOOD ROAD, SUITE 3000, BETHESDA MD 20817
Justin L. Leonard	officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer	C/O DIAMONDROCK HOSPITALITY COMPANY, 2 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, SUITE 1400, BETHESDA MD 20814
William J Tennis	officer: EVP and General Counsel	DIAMONDROCK HOSPITALITY COMPANY, 6903 ROCKLEDGE DRIVE, SUITE 800, BETHESDA MD 20817
Tabassum Zalotrawala	director	610 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 1300, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Briony R. Quinn	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	DIAMONDROCK HOSPITALITY COMPANY, 3 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, SUITE 1500, BETHESDA MD 20814
Troy Furbay	officer: Chief Investment Officer	DIAMONDROCK HOSPITALITY COMPANY, 3 BETHESDA METGRO CENTER, SUITE 1500, BETHESDA MD 20814
Michael A. Hartmeier	director	C/O DIAMONDROCK HOSPITALITY COMPANY, 2 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, SUITE 1400, BETHESDA MD 20814
Jeffrey Donnelly	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O DIAMONDROCK HOSPITALITY COMPANY, 2 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, SUITE 1400, BETHESDA MD 20814
Maureen L Mcavey	director	C/O DIAMONDROCK HOSPITALITY COMPANY, 10400 FERNWOOD ROAD, SUITE 300, BETHESDA MD 20817
Kathleen Wayton	director	C/O DIAMONDROCK HOSPITALITY COMPANY, 2 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, SUITE 1400, BETHESDA MD 20814
Gilbert T Ray	director	901 N GLEBE ROAD, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Jay Lecoryelle Johnson	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O DIAMONDROCK HOSPITALITY COMPANY, 2 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, SUITE 1400, BETHESDA MD 20814
Thomas G. Healy	officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer	DIAMONDROCK HOSPITALITY COMPANY, 3 BETHESDA METRO CENTER, SUITE 1500, BETHESDA MD 20814
Sean M Mahoney	officer: CAO and Corporate Controller	3 BETHESDA METRO CTR #1000, BETHESDA MD 20814
William Joseph Shaw	director	6649 WESTWOOD BLVD., ORLANDO FL 32821