Eventbrite (Eventbrite) Predictability Rank

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What is Eventbrite Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Eventbrite Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Eventbrite (Eventbrite) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Eventbrite Inc (NYSE:EB) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

EB4:Germany

Address

535 Mission Street, 8th Floor, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94105

Website

https://www.eventbrite.com

Eventbrite Inc is a United States based self-service ticketing and experience technology platform that serves event creators. It is engaged in creating a platform to enable creators to solve many challenges associated with creating live experiences. The Company's platform integrates components needed to seamlessly plan, promote and produce live events. Its platform helps to plan, promote and produce live events, thereby allowing creators to reduce friction and costs, increase reach and drive ticket sales. Geographically, it generates maximum revenue from the United States.

Executives

Charles Baker	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MONSTER WORLDWIDE, INC., 622 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Vivek Sagi	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O EVENTBRITE, INC., 155 5TH STREET, 7TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Pilar Manchon	director	C/O EVENTBRITE, INC., 95 THIRD STREET, 2ND FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Julia D. Taylor	officer: General Counsel	C/O EVENTBRITE, INC., 535 MISSION STREET, 8TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Ted Dworkin	officer: Chief Product Officer	C/O EVENTBRITE, INC., 535 MISSION STREET, 8TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
April Underwood	director	C/O ZILLOW GROUP, INC., 1301 2ND AVE, FLOOR 31, SEATTLE WA 98101
Sequoia Grove Ii, Llc	10 percent owner	SEQUOIA CAPITAL, 2800 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Sequoia Grove Manager, Llc	10 percent owner	SEQUOIA CAPITAL, 2800 SAND HILL ROAD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Xiaojing Fan	officer: Chief Accounting Officer, other: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O EVENTBRITE, INC., 155 5TH ST., 7TH FL., SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Naomi Wheeless	director	C/O EVENTBRITE, INC., 155 5TH ST., 7TH FL., SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Samantha Harnett	officer: See Remarks	1836 CLEMENS ROAD, OAKLAND CA 94602
Patrick David Poels	officer: SVP of Platform	EVENTBRITE, INC., 155 5TH STREET, 7TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Sequoia Capital U.s. Venture 2010-seed Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	2800 SAND HILL RD, SUITE 101, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Andrew Dreskin	director	EVENTBRITE, INC., 155 5TH STREET, 7TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Omer Cohen	officer: Chief People Officer	EVENTBRITE, INC., 155 5TH STREET, 7TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103