Eagle Point Credit Co (Eagle Point Credit Co) Predictability Rank

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What is Eagle Point Credit Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Eagle Point Credit Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Eagle Point Credit Co (Eagle Point Credit Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Eagle Point Credit Co Inc (NYSE:ECC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

600 Steamboat Road, Suite 202, Greenwich, CT, USA, 06830

Website

http://www.eaglepointcreditcompany.com

Eagle Point Credit Co Inc is an externally managed, non-diversified closed-end management investment company.

Executives

Trident Ecc Aggregator Lp	10 percent owner	C/O STONE POINT CAPITAL LLC, 20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Trident Capital Ix, L.p.	10 percent owner	STONE POINT CAPITAL LLC, 20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Kenneth P. Onorio	officer: CFO / CCO / Secretary	600 STEAMBOAT RD, SUITE 202, GREENWICH CT 06830
Thomas P. Majewski	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer, other: Portfolio Manager	600 STEAMBOAT RD, SUITE 202, GREENWICH CT 06830
Oa Eagle Group Investors, Llc	other: See Remarks below	126 OTTAWA AVENUE NW, STE 500, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49503
Oa Eagle Group Investors Ii, Llc	other: See Remarks below	126 OTTAWA AVENUE NW, STE 500, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49503
Ottawa Avenue Private Capital, Llc	other: See Remarks below	126 OTTAWA AVENUE, NW, SUITE 500, GRAND RAPIDS MI 49503
Scott Johnathan Bronner	other: Affiliate of Adviser	C/O STONE POINT CAPITAL, 20 HORSENECK LANE, GREENWICH CT 06830
Kevin F. Mcdonald	director	600 STEAMBOAT RD, SUITE 202, GREENWICH CT 06830
Scott W. Appleby	director	600 STEAMBOAT RD, SUITE 202, GREENWICH CT 06830
Nauman S. Malik	other: General Counsel of Inv. Adv.	600 STEAMBOAT RD, SUITE 202, GREENWICH CT 06830
Paul E. Tramontano	director	600 STEAMBOAT RD, SUITE 202, GREENWICH CT 06830
Daniel M. Spinner	other: Portfolio Manager	600 STEAMBOAT RD, SUITE 202, GREENWICH CT 06830
Jerry L Tubergen	other: See Remarks below
Eagle Point Credit Management Llc	other: Investment Adviser	600 STEAMBOAT RD, SUITE 202, GREENWICH CT 06830