Edison International (Edison International) Predictability Rank

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What is Edison International Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Edison International Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Edison International (Edison International) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Utilities » Utilities - Regulated » Edison International (NYSE:EIX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

WEC XEL ETR DTE FE ED ES PEG PPL AEE NEE SO DUK LSE:NG. AEP PCG D BOM:532555 EXC BOM:532898

Traded in Other Exchanges

EIX1:Mexico EIX:Germany

Address

2244 Walnut Grove Avenue, P.O. Box 976, Rosemead, CA, USA, 91770

Website

https://www.edison.com

Edison International is the parent company of Southern California Edison, an electric utility that distributes electricity to 5 million customers in a 50,000-square-mile area of Southern California, excluding Los Angeles. Edison Energy owns interests in nonutility businesses that deal in energy-related products and services. In 2014, Edison International sold its wholesale power generation subsidiary Edison Mission Energy out of bankruptcy to NRG Energy.

Executives

Caroline Choi	officer: Senior Vice President	2244 WALNUT GROVE AVENUE, ROSEMEAD CA 91770
Kara Gostenhofer Ryan	officer: VP, CAO and Controller	1111 LOUISIANA STREET, # 4600, HOUSTON TX 77002
J Andrew Murphy	officer: Senior Vice President	211 CARNEGIE CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Chang Vanessa C L	director	P O BOX 800, 2244 WALNUT GROVE, ROSEMEAD CA 91770
Kate Sturgess	officer: Vice President and Controller	2244 WALNUT GROVE AVENUE, ROSEMEAD CA 91770
Natalie K Schilling	officer: SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT	2244 WALNUT GROVE AVE, ROSEMEAD CA 91770
Marcy L. Reed	director	84 SOUTH SHORE DR, STURBRIDGE MA 01566
Jill Charlotte Anderson	officer: Executive Vice President, SCE	2244 WALNUT GROVE AVENUE, ROSEMEAD CA 91770
Peter J. Taylor	director	2244 WALNUT GROVE AVENUE, ROSEMEAD CA 91770
Keith Trent	director	2244 WALNUT GROVE AVENUE, ROSEMEAD CA 91770
Carey A. Smith	director	6210 ARDREY KELL ROAD, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Steven D Powell	officer: Executive Vice President, SCE	2244 WALNUT GROVE AVENUE, ROSEMEAD CA 91770
Jeanne Beliveau-dunn	director	C/O XYLEM INC., 1 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, RYE BROOK NY 10573
Ronald L Litzinger	officer: Chairman, Pres. & CEO of EMG	P.O. BOX 800, 2244 WALNUT GROVE AVENUE, ROSEMEAD CA 91770
Timothy O'toole	director	55 BROADWAY, LONDON X0 SW1H OBD