Eton Pharmaceuticals (Eton Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2018. Start your Free Trial

What is Eton Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Eton Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Eton Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Eton Pharmaceuticals's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Eton Pharmaceuticals (Eton Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:ETON) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

21925 West Field Parkway, Suite 235, Deer Park, IL, USA, 60010-7278

Website

https://www.etonpharma.com

Eton Pharmaceuticals Inc is a United States based specialty pharmaceutical company. The company is engaged in developing and commercializing pharmaceutical products to fulfill an unmet patient need. It has a diversified pipeline of around eleven product candidates in various stages of development.

Executives

David Krempa	officer: Chief Business Officer	29125 W FIELD PARKWAY, SUITE 235, DEER PARK IL 60010
Sean Brynjelsen	director, officer: President & CEO	C/O ETON PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 21925 W FIELD PKWY #235, DEER PARK IL 60010
James R. Gruber	officer: Chief Financial Officer	618 AMES STREET, LIBERTYVILLE IL 60048
Opaleye Management Inc.	10 percent owner	ONE BOSTON PLACE, SUITE 2600, BOSTON MA 02108
William Wilson Troutman	officer: CFO, Treasurer & Secretary	21925 W FIELD PARKWAY, SUITE 235, DEER PARK IL 60010
Imprimis Pharmaceuticals, Inc.	10 percent owner	102 WOODMONT BLVD, SUITE 610, NASHVILLE TN 37215
Jennifer Mckie Adams	director	5410 TENNESSEE AVE, NASHVILLE TN 37209
Charles J Casamento	director	99 BELBROOK WAY, ATHERTON CA 94027
Norbert G Riedel	director	BAXTER INTERNATIONAL INC, ONE BAXTER PKWY DF2-1W, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Mark L Baum	director	C/O IMPRIMIS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC, 12264 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 350, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Paul V Maier	director	3595 JOHN HOPKINS COURT, SAN DIEGO CA 92121