Evercore (Evercore) Predictability Rank

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What is Evercore Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Evercore Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Evercore (Evercore) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Capital Markets » Evercore Inc (NYSE:EVR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

QGJ:Germany QGJ:Germany

Address

55 East 52nd Street, New York, NY, USA, 10055

Website

https://www.evercore.com

Evercore is an independent investment bank that derives the majority of its revenue from financial advisory, including merger, acquisition, and restructuring advisory. It also has institutional equities trading, equity underwriting, and investment management businesses that account for around 20% of net revenue. The company was founded in 1996 and went public in 2006. Evercore had approximately 1,800 employees at the end of 2022, and about 75% of its revenue is derived from the United States.

Executives

Richard I Beattie	director	C/O SIMPSON THACHER & BARTLETT, 425 LEXINGTON AVE, NEW YORK NY 10017-3954
Pamela G Carlton	director	901 S. MARQUETTE AVENUE, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402
Timothy Gilbert Lalonde	officer: Chief Financial Officer	55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055
Jason Klurfeld	officer: General Counsel	55 EAST 52ND STREET, C/O EVERCORE INC., NEW YORK NY 10055
Paul Pensa	officer: Contr.,Principal Acct. Officer	55 EAST 52ND STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10055
Ralph Schlosstein	director, officer: President and CEO	EVERCORE PARTNERS INC., 55 EAST 52ND STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10055
Celeste M Brown	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O EVERCORE INC., 55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055
Robert B Walsh	officer: Principal Financial Officer	C/O EVERCORE PARTNERS INC., 55 EAST 52ND STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10055
Ellen V Futter	director	J P MORGAN CHASE & CO, 270 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Roger C Altman	director, officer: Executive Chairman	EVERCORE PARTNERS INC., 55 EAST 52ND STREET, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10055
Wilson Kendrick R Iii	director	C/O EVERCORE INC., 55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055
Ostoa Augusto Arellano	officer: CEO of EVR Mexico	55 EAST 52ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10055
Andrew Sibbald	officer: CEO EVR Partners International	55 EAST 52ND STREET, FLOOR 38, NEW YORK NY 10055
Sarah K Williamson	director	55 EAST 52ND STREET, C/O EVERCORE INC., NEW YORK NY 10055
Adam B Frankel	officer: General Counsel