What is 4D Molecular Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
4D Molecular Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
4D Molecular Therapeutics (4D Molecular Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
5858 Horton Street, Suite 455, Emeryville, CA, USA, 94608
4D Molecular Therapeutics Inc a clinical-stage gene therapy company engaged in the development of product candidates using targeted and evolved AAV vectors. It has built portfolio of gene therapy product candidates focused in three therapeutic areas: ophthalmology (intravitreal vector), cardiology (intravenous vector) and pulmonology (aerosol vector). It has three product candidates in clinical trials: 4D-125 for the treatment of X-linked retinitis pigmentosa in a Phase 1/2 clinical trial, 4D-110 for the treatment of choroideremia in a Phase 1 clinical trial, and 4D-310 for the treatment of Fabry disease in a Phase 1/2 clinical trial. Its two IND candidates are 4D-150 for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration, and 4D-710 for the treatment of cystic fibrosis lung disease.
Executives
| David Kirn |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O 4D MOLECULAR THERAPEUTICS INC., 5858 HORTON STREET #455, EMERYVILLE CA 94608 |
| Viking Global Investors Lp |
10 percent owner |
600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901 |
| Uneek Mehra |
officer: See Remarks |
C/O MYOVANT SCIENCES INC., 2000 SIERRA POINT PARKWAY, 9TH FLOOR, BRISBANE CA 94005 |
| Rose Sharon Shabet |
10 percent owner |
600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901 |
| Viking Global Opportunities Parent Gp Llc |
10 percent owner |
600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901 |
| Ole Andreas Halvorsen |
10 percent owner |
600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901 |
| David C. Ott |
10 percent owner |
600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901 |
| Viking Global Opportunities Portfolio Gp Llc |
10 percent owner |
600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901 |
| Viking Global Opportunities Gp Llc |
10 percent owner |
55 RAILROAD AVENUE, GREENWICH CT 06830 |
| Viking Global Opportunities Illiquid Investments Sub-master Lp |
10 percent owner |
600 WASHINGTON BLVD., FLOOR 11, STAMFORD CT 06901 |
| Jacob Chacko |
director |
C/O IGNYTA, INC., 11095 FLINTKOTE AVE., SUITE D, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Scott Bizily |
officer: Chief Legal and HR Officer |
C/O 4D MOLECULAR THERAPEUTICS, INC., 5858 HORTON STREET #455, EMERYVILLE CA 94608 |
| Robert Young Kim |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
C/O 4D MOLECULAR THERAPEUTICS, INC., 5858 HORTON STREET #455, EMERYVILLE CA 94608 |
| Noriyuki Kasahara |
director |
C/O 4D MOLECULAR THERAPEUTICS, INC., 5858 HORTON STREET #455, EMERYVILLE CA 94608 |
| Bvf I Gp Llc |
other: See Explanation of Responses |
44 MONTGOMERY ST., 40TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104 |
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