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FleetMatics Group (FleetMatics Group) Predictability Rank


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What is FleetMatics Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


FleetMatics Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

FleetMatics Group Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of FleetMatics Group's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


FleetMatics Group (FleetMatics Group) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
FleetMatics Group PLC was incorporated in Ireland on October 28, 2004 as a private limited company. The Company is a holding company and conduct substantially all of its business through its wholly-owned operating subsidiaries, FleetMatics IRL Limited, FleetMatics UK Limited, FleetMatics USA, LLC, SageQuest LLC, and Connect2Field Pty Ltd. It is a provider of fleet management solutions delivered as software-as-a-service, or SaaS. Its mobile software platform enables businesses to meet the challenges associated with managing their local fleets of commercial vehicles and improve productivity by extracting actionable business intelligence from vehicle and driver behavioral data. The Company offers intuitive, cost-effective Web-based and mobile application solutions that provide fleet operators with visibility into vehicle location, fuel usage, speed and mileage and other insights into their mobile workforce, enabling them to reduce operating and capital costs, as well as increase revenue. As of December 31, 2013, the Company had approximately 22,000 customers who collectively deployed its solutions in over 445,000 vehicles worldwide. The substantial majority of its customers are small and medium-sized businesses, or SMBs, each of which deploys its solutions in 1,000 or fewer vehicles. Many SMBs manage their local fleets by using manual processes, such as entering data on time sheets and communicating with mobile employees using cellular phones, which generate minimal actionable business intelligence. Its multi-tenant SaaS solutions are designed to meet the needs of SMBs, overcome existing barriers to adoption, and leverage the volumes of data transmitted to them from in-vehicle devices over cellular networks that they aggregate and analyze from its large and growing subscriber base. By using its solutions to extract actionable business intelligence from the data on their fleet and mobile workforce, fleet operators gain greater control over fuel, maintenance, labor and other costs while improving the return on capital invested in their fleet. The Company's SaaS solutions enable businesses to meet the challenges associated with managing their local fleets by extracting actionable business intelligence from vehicle and driver behavioral data. Its fleet management solutions can be accessed over personal computers, tablets or smart phones. The Company's Fleet Tracking Alerts allow fleet operators to set driver performance thresholds and receive email notifications when unwanted driving behavior occurs. Notifications are sent when a vehicle enters or exits specified areas, moves during specified times, or when a vehicle's speed or idle time exceeds specified thresholds. Its Route Replay feature allows customers to play back each journey taken by their vehicles, from start up to shut down and provides customers with minute-by-minute location and speed details. Its marketing programs target owners and managers in the service and distribution
Executives
Jill A Ward other: President & COO C/O FLEETMATICS, 1100 WINTER STREET, SUITE 4600, WALTHAM MA 02451
James F. Kelliher director C/O LOGMEIN, INC. 500 UNICORN PARK DRIVE WOBURN MA 01801
Allison Mnookin director C/O INTUIT, 150 CAMBRIDGE PARK DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02140
Jack Noonan director 17000 GULF BLVD, UNIT B, N. REDINGTON BEACH FL 33708
Robert Dahdah officer: SVP, Global Sales C/O NUANCE COMMUNICATIONS, INC. ONE WAYSIDE ROAD BURLINGTON MA 01803
Brian Halligan director C/O HUBSPOT, 25 FIRST STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02141
Palma Vincent De director C/O SHRED-IT INTERNATIONAL, 2794 SOUTH SHERIDAN WAY, OAKVILLE A6 L6J7T4
Stephen J Lifshatz officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O DYNATRACE HOLDINGS LLC, 1601 TRAPELO ROAD, SUITE 116, WALTHAM MA 02451

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