Fox Factory Holding (Fox Factory Holding) Predictability Rank

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What is Fox Factory Holding Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Fox Factory Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Fox Factory Holding (Fox Factory Holding) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Vehicles & Parts » Fox Factory Holding Corp (NAS:FOXF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FF0:Germany FF0:Germany

Address

2055 Sugarloaf Circle, Suite 300, Duluth, GA, USA, 30097

Website

https://www.ridefox.com

Fox Factory Holding Corp is a designer, manufacturer, and marketer of performance-defining products and systems used primarily on bikes, Side-by-Sides, on-road vehicles with and without off-road capabilities, off-road vehicles and trucks, ATVs, snowmobiles, specialty vehicles and applications, motorcycles, and commercial trucks. Its business operates under the FOX, FOX RACING SHOX, and RACE FACE brands. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from North Americas and also has a presence in Asia, Europe, and the Rest of the World.

Executives

Thomas E. Duncan	director	C/O FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP., 2055 SUGARLOAF CIRCLE, SUITE 300, DULUTH GA 30097
Paul Stecher	officer: SEE REMARKS (A)	C/O FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP., 2055 SUGARLOAF CIRCLE, SUITE 300, DULUTH GA 30097
Michael C. Dennison	director	C/O FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP., 2055 SUGARLOAF CIRCLE, SUITE 300, DULUTH GA 30097
Christopher Tutton	officer: SEE REMARKS (A)	C/O FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP., 6634 HIGHWAY 53, BRASELTON GA 30517
Dennis Charles Schemm	officer: CFO & Treasurer	CONTINENTAL BUILDING PRODUCTS, 12950 WORLDGATE DRIVE, HERNDON VA 20170
Dudley W Mendenhall	director	5818 EL CAMINO REAL, CARLSBAD CA 92008
Brendan Enick	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP., 2055 SUGARLOAF CIRCLE, SUITE 300, DULUTH GA 30097
Maggie Elizabeth Torres	officer: Interim CFO & Treasurer	C/O FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP., 2055 SUGARLOAF CIRCLE, SUITE 300, DULUTH GA 30097
Thomas L. Fletcher	officer: SEE REMARKS (A)	C/O FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP., 2055 SUGARLOAF CIRCLE, SUITE 300, DULUTH GA 30097
Elizabeth A Fetter	director	1400 MARINA WAY SOUTH, RICHMOND CA 94804
Richard T. Winters	officer: SEE REMARKS (A)	C/O FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP., 2055 SUGARLOAF CIRCLE, SUITE 300, DULUTH GA 30097
Scott Randall Humphrey	officer: CFO & TREASURER	C/O FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP., 6634 HIGHWAY 53, BRASELTON GA 30517
Toby D Merchant	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP., 2055 SUGARLOAF CIRCLE, SUITE 300, DULUTH GA 30097
Larry L Enterline	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	2709 WATER RIDGE PARKWAY, 2ND FLOOR, CHARLOTTE NC 28217
Sidney Johnson	director	C/O FOX FACTORY HOLDING CORP., 2055 SUGARLOAF CIRCLE, SUITE 300, DULUTH GA 30097