Federated Premier Intmd Muniome Fund (Federated Premier Intmd Muniome Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is Federated Premier Intmd Muniome Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Federated Premier Intmd Muniome Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Federated Premier Intmd Muniome Fund Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Federated Premier Intmd Muniome Fund (Federated Premier Intmd Muniome Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Federated Premier Intmd Muni Income Fund (NYSE:FPT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.federatedinvestors.com

Federated Premier Intmd Muni Income Fund is a diversified, closed-end management investment company. Its investment objective is to provide current income exempt from federal income tax, including the federal alternative minimum tax (AMT).

Executives

Bank Of America Na	10 percent owner	100 N. TRYON STREET, CHARLOTTE NC 28255
Blue Ridge Investments, L.l.c.	10 percent owner	ONE BRYANT PARK, NEW YORK NY 10036
Federated Investment Management Co	other: Investment Adviser to FPT	FEDERATED INVESTORS TOWER 1001 LIBERTY AVENUE PITTSBURGH PA 15222-3779
Thomas R Donahue	other: Trustee & Treas. of FIMCO	5800 CORPORATE DRIVE, PITTSBURGH PA 15237-7000
Bank Of America Corp /de/	10 percent owner	BANK OF AMERICA CORPORATE CENTER, 100 N TRYON ST, CHARLOTTE NC 28255
Karpus Management, Inc.	10 percent owner	183 SULLY'S TRAIL, PITTSFORD NY 14534
George W Karpus	10 percent owner
Patrick Benacci	other: Senior Trader	1001 LIBERTY AVENUE, PITTSBURGH PA 15222-3779
G. Thomas Hough	director	P.O. BOX 407, LAKELAND FL 33802
Meter Stephen Van	officer: Chief Compliance Officer	FEDERATED INVESTORS TOWER, 1001 LIBERTY AVENUE, PITTSBURGH PA 15222-3779
John T Collins	director	THE COLLINS GROUP, 60 STATE ST, SUITE 700, BOSTON MA 02109
P Jerome Richey	director	1800 WASHINGTON ROAD, PITTSBURGH PA 15421-1421
Lori A Hensler	officer: Treasurer	940 FIFTH STREET, N. HUNTINGTON PA 15642
Citigroup Inc	10 percent owner	388 GREENWICH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10013
Robert J Ostrowski	officer: Chief Investment Officer	4000 ERICSSON DRIVE, WARRENDALE PA 15086-7561

Federated Premier Intmd Muniome Fund (Federated Premier Intmd Muniome Fund) Headlines

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