GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Chemicals » American Pacific Corporation (FRA:ACQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

American Pacific (FRA:ACQ) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to . Start your Free Trial

What is American Pacific Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


American Pacific Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

American Pacific Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of American Pacific's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.


American Pacific (FRA:ACQ) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
American Pacific Corporation was incorporated in Delaware in December 1980. The Company is a custom manufacturer of fine chemicals, specialty chemicals and propulsion products. It supplies active pharmaceutical ingredients and registered intermediates to the pharmaceutical industry. The pharmaceutical ingredients it manufacture are used by its customers in drugs with indications in three primary areas: anti-viral, oncology, and central nervous system. Its customers include pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies, as well as emerging pharmaceutical companies. Its continuing operations comprise three reportable business segments: Fine Chemicals, Specialty Chemicals, and Other Businesses. The Fine Chemicals segment is operated through its wholly-owned subsidiaries Ampac Fine Chemicals LLC and AMPAC Fine Chemicals Texas, LLC. Specialty Chemicals segment is principally engaged in the production of perchlorates, which include several grades of ammonium perchlorate, sodium perchlorate and potassium perchlorate. In addition, it produce and sell sodium azide, a chemical primarily used in pharmaceutical manufacturing, and Halotron, a series of clean fire extinguishing agents used in fire extinguishing products ranging from portable fire extinguishers to total flooding systems. For the aerospace and defense industry, it provides specialty chemicals used in solid rocket motors for space launch and military missiles. Other Businesses segment contains its water treatment equipment division and real estate activities PEPCON Systems, an operating division of the Company, is a manufacturer and supplier of On-Site Hypochlorite Generation systems.The Company design, manufacture and service equipment used to purify water or air in municipal, industrial and power generation applications. The systems are marketed under the ChlorMaster and Odormaster names. The main competing product to Halotron I is FE36 manufactured by DuPont. The Company's operations are subject to extensive federal, state and local regulations governing, among other things, emissions to air, discharges to water and waste management.

American Pacific (FRA:ACQ) Headlines

No Headlines