iGate (FRA:MS4) Predictability Rank

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What is iGate Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

iGate Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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iGate (FRA:MS4) Business Description

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Website

http://www.igate.com

Igate Corp was founded in 1986. The Company is an outsourcing provider of integrated end-to-end offshore centric information technology (IT) and IT-enabled operations solutions and services. The Company delivers various IT services through international integrated onsite and offshore delivery locations mainly in India. The Company provides its services to customers through industry focused practices, including insurance and healthcare (IHC), manufacturing, retail and logistics (MRDL), banking and financial services (BFS"), communications and utilities (CEU), and media and entertainment (MELT) and through technology focused practices. It offers services to customers through industry focused practices, including insurance and healthcare, life sciences, manufacturing, retail and logistics, banking and financial services, communications, energy and utilities, product and engineering solutions, government solutions and media and entertainment. Its IT and IT-enabled services include application development, application management, verification and validation, enterprise application solutions, business intelligence and data warehousing, infrastructure management services, enterprise mobility, cloud services, embedded systems development, engineering design services, IT consulting, IT governance and customized learning solutions, business process outsourcing ("BPO") and customer interaction services. The Company has operations in India, Canada, the United States, Europe, Mexico, Singapore, Malaysia, Japan, Australia, the United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Turkey, South Korea, China, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The Company delivers effective solutions to more than 360 Fortune 1000 clients. The Company's main competitors in the IT and IT enabled outsourcing industry include IT outsourcing firms, consulting firms, systems integration-firms and general management consulting firms such as Tata Consultancy Services Limited, Infosys Technologies Limited, Cognizant Technology Solutions Corporation, Wipro Limited, Genpact Limited, WNS (Holdings) Limited, EXLService Holdings Inc., Syntel Inc., Mindtree Limited, and Hexaware Technologies Limited. The Company is subject to numerous, and sometimes conflicting, legal regimes on matters as diverse as anticorruption, import/export controls, content requirements, trade restrictions, tariffs, taxation, sanctions, immigration, internal and disclosure control obligations, securities regulation, anti-competition, data privacy and labor relations.

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