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Platinum Underwriters Holdings (FRA:PMU) Predictability Rank


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What is Platinum Underwriters Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.


Platinum Underwriters Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Platinum Underwriters Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Platinum Underwriters Holdings (FRA:PMU) Business Description

Traded in Other Exchanges
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Address
Platinum Underwriters Holdings, Ltd. was incorporated on April 19, 2002. It operates as a holding company domiciled in Bermuda. Through its operating subsidiaries, it provides property and marine, casualty and finite risk reinsurance coverages, through reinsurance intermediaries, to a diverse clientele of commercial and personal lines insurers and select reinsurers on a basis. The Company operates through two licensed reinsurance subsidiaries, Platinum Underwriters Bermuda, Ltd., a Bermuda reinsurance company and wholly owned subsidiary of Platinum Holdings, and Platinum Underwriters Reinsurance, Inc., a U.S. reinsurance company and a wholly owned subsidiary of Platinum Underwriters Finance, Inc. The Company operates in Property and Marine, Casualty and Finite Risk segments. It provides reinsurance coverage for damage to property and crops. It provides reinsurance coverage for marine and offshore energy insurance programs. Coverages reinsured include hull damage, protection and indemnity, cargo damage, satellite damage and general marine liability. Within Marine, it also writes commercial and general aviation reinsurance. Casualty reinsurance protects a ceding company against financial loss arising out of the obligation to others for loss or damage to persons or property. The Company's Casualty operating segment mainly includes reinsurance contracts that cover umbrella liability, general and product liability, professional liability, workers' compensation, casualty clash, automobile liability, surety, trade credit, political risk and accident and health. Finite reinsurance includes mainly structured reinsurance contracts with ceding companies whose needs might not be met efficiently through traditional reinsurance products. Reinsurance contracts classified as finite are typically structured to include loss limitation or loss mitigation features. It markets its reinsurance products mainly through non-exclusive relationships with reinsurance brokers. The property and casualty reinsurance industry is competitive. It competes with Arch Capital Group Ltd., Axis Capital Holdings Limited, Endurance Specialty Holdings Ltd., Everest Re Group, Ltd., Montpelier Re Holdings Ltd., PartnerRe Ltd., RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. and Transatlantic Holdings, Inc. The business of reinsurance is regulated in several countries, although the degree and type of regulation. Reinsurers are generally subject to less direct regulation than main insurers.

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