Thoratec (FRA:TL1) Predictability Rank

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What is Thoratec Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Thoratec Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Thoratec (FRA:TL1) Business Description

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GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Thoratec Corp (FRA:TL1) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

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Address

Website

http://www.thoratec.com

Thoratec Corporation incorporated in the State of California in 1976 provides mechanical circulatory support with a product portfolio to treat the full range of clinical needs for advanced heart failure patients. It develops, manufactures and markets proprietary medical devices used for circulatory support. Following the sale of ITC in 2010, the Company has one operating segment: Cardiovascular group. This segment is organized and operates to develop and manufacture mechanical circulatory products to support the cardiovascular systems of humans. The Company's VAD products primarily serve patients suffering from late-stage HF. HF is a chronic disease that occurs when degeneration of the heart muscle reduces the pumping power of the heart, causing the heart to become too weak to pump blood at a level sufficient to meet the body's demands. Hospitals that perform open heart surgery and heart transplants are the potential customers for its Thoratec and HeartMate products. The Company estimates that it sells into 293 of these centers. According to the Company's estimates, it is in approximately 149 centers in the United States and 144 centers internationally. Competition from medical device companies and medical device divisions of healthcare companies, pharmaceutical companies and gene- and cell-based therapies is intense and is expected to increase. It therefore continues to expect new competitors both from the pharmacological and the medical device space. Among the medical device competitors are Aachen Innovative Solutions GmbH, AbioMed, Inc., Berlin Heart GmbH, HeartWare International Inc., Jarvik Heart, Inc., Maquet Cardiovascular, LLC (a division of Getinge AB), MicroMed Technology, Inc., Sun Medical Technology Research Corporation, SynCardia Systems, Inc., and Terumo Heart, Inc. All of the Company's proposed products will require regulatory approval prior to commercialization. In particular, medical devices are subject to rigorous pre-clinical testing as a condition of approval by the FDA and by similar authorities in foreign countries.

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