URS (FRA:URS) Predictability Rank

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What is URS Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

URS Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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URS (FRA:URS) Business Description

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GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » URS Corp (FRA:URS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

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Website

http://www.urscorp.com

URS Corporation was originally incorporated in California on May 1, 1957 under the former name of Broadview Research Corporation. On May 18, 1976, it re-incorporated in Delaware under the name URS Corporation. After several additional name changes, it re-adopted the name 'URS Corporation' on February 21, 1990. The Company is an international provider of engineering, construction and technical services. It offers a range of program management, planning, design, engineering, construction and construction management, operations and maintenance, and decommissioning and closure services to public agencies and private sector clients around the world. It is also a U.S. federal government contractor in the areas of systems engineering and technical assistance, and operations and maintenance. The Company expertise is focused in four market sectors: power, infrastructure, federal, and industrial and commercial. Within these markets, it offers a broad range of services, including program management; planning, design and engineering; systems engineering and technical assistance; IT services; construction and construction management; operations and maintenance; and decommissioning and closure. In the power sector, the Company plans, designs, engineers, constructs, retrofits and maintains a wide range of power-generating facilities, as well as the systems that transmit and distribute electricity. Its services include planning, siting and licensing, permitting, engineering, procurement, construction and construction management, facility start-up, operations and maintenance, upgrades and modifications, and decommissioning and closure. It provides these services to utilities, industrial co-generators, independent power producers, original equipment manufacturers and government utilities. In the infrastructure sector, the Company plans, designs, engineers, constructs, retrofits and maintains a wide range of power-generating facilities, as well as the systems that transmit and distribute electricity. Its services include planning, siting and licensing, permitting, engineering, procurement, construction and construction management, facility start-up, operations and maintenance, upgrades and modifications, and decommissioning and closure. As a contractor to the U.S. federal government and national governments of other countries, it serves a wide variety of government departments and agencies, including the DOD, DHS, Department of Energy, as well as the General Services Administration, the Environmental Protection Agency, NASA and other federal agencies. The Company's services range from program management; planning, design and engineering; systems engineering and technical assistance; and IT services to construction and construction management; operations and maintenance; and decommissioning and closure. In industrial and commercial sector it provides a wide range of engineering, procurement and construction services for new industrial and commercial

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