Federal Signal (Federal Signal) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 1969. Start your Free Trial

What is Federal Signal Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Federal Signal Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Federal Signal Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Federal Signal's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Federal Signal (Federal Signal) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Federal Signal Corp (NYSE:FSS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

FSG:Germany

Address

1415 West 22nd Street, Suite 1100, Oak Brook, IL, USA, 60523

Website

https://www.federalsignal.com

Federal Signal Corp designs and manufactures products and integrated solutions for municipal, governmental, industrial, and airport customers. It operates in the segments of Environmental Solutions Group and the Safety and Security Systems Group. The Environmental solutions group manufactures and supplies street sweeper vehicles, sewer cleaner and vacuum loader trucks, hydro-excavation trucks, high-performance waterblasting equipment, dump truck bodies and trailers. The Safety and Security Systems Group offers comprehensive systems and products such as campus and community alerting, emergency vehicles, first responder interoperable communications, and others. The company generates a majority of its revenue from the Environmental Solutions Group segment.

Executives

Mark Weber	officer: President-Envir. Products Grp.	1415 W. 22ND STREET, SUITE 1100, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Felix Boeschen	officer: VP Strategy/Investor Relations	1415 W. 22ND STREET, SUITE 1100, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Dennis J Martin	director	505 WEST FRANKLIN AVENUE, NAPERVILLE IL 60540
Lauren B Elting	officer: VP & Corporate Controller	1415 WEST 22ND STREET, SUITE 1100, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Ian A. Hudson	officer: V.P. & Corporate Controller	1415 WEST 22ND STREET, SUITE 1100, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Diane Bonina	officer: VP, Gen'l Counsel & Secretary	1415 W. 22ND STREET, SUITE 1100, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Shashank Patel	director	1 INTERNATIONAL DRIVE, RYE BROOK NY 10573
Svetlana Vinokur	officer: VP, Treasurer & Corp. Develop.	1415 WEST 22ND STREET, SUITE 1100, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Jennifer L Sherman	officer: VP, General Counsel & Sec.	1415 W. 22ND STREET, SUITE 1100, OAK BROOK IL 60523
William F Owens	director	C/O KEY ENERGY SERVICES, INC., 1301 MCKINNEY STREET, SUITE 1800, HOUSTON TX 77010
John L Workman	director	C/O HEALTHSOUTH CORPORATION, ONE HEALTHSOUTH PARKWAY, BIRMINGHAM AL 35243
Richard R Mudge	director	1415 WEST 22ND STREET, SUITE 1100, OAK BROOK IL 60523
Lowe Eugene Joseph Iii	director	13320 BALLANTYNE CORPORATE PLACE, CHARLOTTE NC 28277
Patrick E. Miller	director	C/O COMMERICAL VEHICLE GROUP, INC., 7800 WALTON PARKWAY, NEW ALBANY OH 43054
Samuel Miceli	officer: Sr. VP - Env. Solutions. Group	1415 WEST 22ND STREET, SUITE 1100, OAK BROOK IL 60523