First Watch Restaurant Group (First Watch Restaurant Group) Predictability Rank

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What is First Watch Restaurant Group Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

First Watch Restaurant Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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First Watch Restaurant Group (First Watch Restaurant Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Restaurants » First Watch Restaurant Group Inc (NAS:FWRG) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

8725 Pendery Place, Suite 201, Bradenton, FL, USA, 34201

Website

https://www.firstwatch.com

First Watch Restaurant Group Inc is a daytime restaurant concept serving made-to-order breakfast, brunch, and lunch using fresh ingredients. It generates revenues from Restaurant sales and Franchise revenues.

Executives

William A Kussell	director	C/O ADVENT INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION, 75 STATE STREET 29TH FLOOR, BOSTON MA 02109
Christopher Anthony Tomasso	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O FIRST WATCH RESTAURANT GROUP, INC., 8725 PENDERY PLACE, SUITE 201, BRADENTON FL 34201
Matthew Eisenacher	officer: Chief Brand Officer	8725 PENDERY PLACE, STE. 201, BRADENTON FL 34201
Irene Chang Britt	director	CAMPBELL SOUP COMPANY, ONE CAMPBELL PLACE, CAMDEN NJ 08103
Advent International Corp/ma	10 percent owner	800 BOYLSTON STREET SUITE 3300, BOSTON MA 02199
David Paresky	director	ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, PRUDENTIAL TOWER, 800 BOYLSTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02199
Tricia Glynn	director	C/O ADVENT INERNATIONAL CORPORATION, PRUDENTIAL TOWER, 800 BOYLSTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02199
Advent International Gp, Llc	10 percent owner	800 BOYLSTON STREET SUITE 3300, BOSTON MA 02199
Michael James White	director	C/O ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, PRUDENTIAL TOWER, 800 BOYLSTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02199
Advent Partners Gpe Vii-b Cayman Limited Partnership	10 percent owner	C/O ADVENT INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION, 75 STATE STREET, BOSTON MA 02109
Stephanie Lilak	director	C/O DUNKIN' BRANDS, INC., 130 ROYALL STREET, CANTON MA 02021
Hope H Melville Iii	officer: CFO and Treasurer	AFC ENTERPRISES INC, SIX CONCOURSE PKWY STE 1700, ATLANTA GA 30328-5352
Middleton Calum Alasdair Johnstone	officer: Chief Strategy Officer	C/O FIRST WATCH RESTAURANT GROUP, INC., 8725 PENDERY PLACE, SUITE 201, BRADENTON FL 34201
Gpe Viii Gp Limited Partnership	10 percent owner	C/O ADVENT INTERNATIONAL CORP., 75 STATE STREET, BOSTON MA 02109
Gpe Viii Gp S.a.r.l.	10 percent owner	CO ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, 800 BOYLSTON STREET, BOSTON MA 02199