Global Indemnity Group LLC (Global Indemnity Group LLC) Predictability Rank

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What is Global Indemnity Group LLC Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Global Indemnity Group LLC Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Global Indemnity Group LLC (Global Indemnity Group LLC) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Insurance » Global Indemnity Group LLC (NYSE:GBLI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

112 S. French Street, Suite 105, Wilmington, NC, USA, 19801

Website

https://www.gbli.com

Global Indemnity Group LLC provides both admitted and non-admitted specialty property and casualty insurance coverages and individual policyholder coverages in the United States, as well as reinsurance worldwide. The company's three primary segments are Commercial Specialty, Reinsurance operations, and Exited Lines. The majority of its revenue is from the Commercial Specialty segment. Geographically, the majority is from California.

Executives

Bevan Olson Greibesland	officer: SVP - Programs	112 S. FRENCH STREET, SUITE 105, WILMINGTON DE 19801
Fred Robert Donner	director	GLOBAL INDEMNITY GROUP, LLC, 112 S. FRENCH STREET, SUITE 105, WILMINGTON DE 19801
Gary Charles Tolman	director	C/O GLOBAL INDEMNITY GROUP, LLC, 112 S. FRENCH STREET, SUITE 105, WILMINGTON DE 19801
Seth Gersch	director	C/O UNITED AMERICA INDEMNITY GROUP, INC., SUITE 605, BALA CYNWYD PA 19004
Joseph W Brown	director	C/O SAFECO, 4333 BROOKLYN AVENUE NE, SEATTLE WA 98185
Reiner Ralf Mauer	officer: Chief Operating Officer	3 BALA PLAZA EAST, SUITE 300, BALA CYNWYD PA 19004
David S Charlton	director	3 BALA PLAZA EAST, SUITE 300, BALA CYNWYD PA 19004
Holt James Richard Jr	director	3 BALA PLAZA EAST, SUITE 300, BALA CYNWYD PA 19004
Bruce R Lederman	director	2601 OCEAN PARK BLVD. SUITE 320, SANTA MONCICA CA 90405-5216
David C Elliott	officer: Sr. Vice President, Claims	3 BALA PLAZA EAST, SUITE 300, BALA CYNWYD PA 19004
Stanley K Lam	officer: Senior Vice President	3 BALA PLAZA EAST, SUITE 300, BALA CYNWYD PA 19004
Saul A Fox	director, 10 percent owner	950 TOWER LANE, SUITE 1150, FOSTER CITY CA 94404
James D Wehr	director	3 BALA PLAZA EAST, SUITE 300, BALA CYNWYD PA 19004
Stephen Green	officer: President, Wind River Reinsur.	3 BALA PLAZA EAST, SUITE 300, BALA CYNWYD PA 19004
Thomas P. Gibbons	officer: Executive Vice Presdient	3 BALA PLAZA EAST, SUITE 300, BALA CYNWYD PA 19004