Greater China Fund (Greater China Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is Greater China Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Greater China Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Greater China Fund (Greater China Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Greater China Fund Inc (NYSE:GCH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

Website

http://www.aberdeengch.com

Greater China Fund Inc is a closed end management investment company. Its objective is to seek long-term capital appreciation through investment in listed equity securities of companies.

Executives

City Of London Investment Group Plc	10 percent owner	77 GRACECHURCH STREET, LONDON X0 EC3V0AS
Joseph Andolina	officer: Vice President - Compliance	1735 MARKET STREET, 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Guet Tay Kheng	other: Director of Investment Manager	1735 MARKET STREET, 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
City Of London Investment Management Co Ltd	10 percent owner	77 GRACECHURCH STREET, LONDON X0 EC3V0AS
Terence Lim	other: Director of Investment Adviser	1735 MARKET STREET, 32ND FLOOR, PHILIADELPHIA PA 19103
Bill Maher	director	600 WEST BROADWAY, 30TH FL., SAN DIEGO CA 92101
Moritz A Sell	director	C/O USBANCORP FUND SERVICES, 777 E WISCONSIN AVE., MILWAUKEE WI 53202
Flavia Cheong	other: Director of Investment Advisor	1735 MARKET STREET, 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Hui Lin Ng	other: Director of Investment Advisor	1735 MARKET STREET, 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Lim Sock-hwei	other: Director of Investment Adviser	1735 MARKET STREET, 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Andrew Narracott	other: Director of Investment Adviser	1735 MARKET STREET, 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Beverley Hendry	officer: Vice President	C/O ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGMENT INC., 1735 MARKET STREET, 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Victor Rodriguez	other: Director of Investment Adviser	1735 MARKET STREET, 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Gary Marshall	officer: Vice President	97 HAYMARKET TERRACE, EDINBURGH X0 EH12 5HD
Lucia Sitar	officer: Vice President and CLO	1735 MARKET STREET, 32ND FLOOR, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103

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