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Griffon (Griffon) Predictability Rank


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What is Griffon Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Griffon Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Griffon Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Griffon (Griffon) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Conglomerates » Griffon Corp (NYSE:GFF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
SEB VMI MDU CODI MATW SPLP FIP TRC NNBR TUSK ADX:IHC HON TSE:8058 TSE:6501 TSE:8031 TSE:8001 MMM ADX:ALPHADHABI TSE:8053 TSE:8002
Traded in Other Exchanges
GFF:Germany
Address
712 Fifth Avenue, 18th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10019
Website
https://www.griffon.com
Griffon Corp manufactures and markets residential, commercial and industrial garage doors to professional installing dealers and home center retail chains. It also provides non-powered landscaping products for homeowners and professionals. Its operating segments include Consumer and Professional Products and Home and Building Products. The company generates a majority of its revenue from the Home and Building Products segment.
Executives
Voss Value-oriented Special Situations Fund, Lp director 3773 RICHMOND AVENUE, SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77046
Voss Value Master Fund, L.p. director 3773 RICHMOND AVENUE, SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77046
Voss Value Master Fund, Lp director, other: See Remarks 3773 RICHMOND AVENUE, SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77046
Travis W. Cocke director, other: See Remarks 3773 RICHMOND AVENUE, SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77046
Voss Advisors Gp, Llc director 3773 RICHMOND AVENUE, SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77046
Voss Capital, Llc director 3773 RICHMOND AVENUE, SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77046
Michelle L Taylor director 712 FIFTH AVENUE, C/O GRIFFON CORPORATION, NEW YORK NY 10019
Diao H.c. Charles director 1775 TYSONS BOULEVARD, TYSONS VA 22102
Lacy M. Johnson director 200 EAST RANDOLPH STREET, SUITE 3300, CHICAGO IL 60601
Louis J. Grabowsky director 6605 ABERDEEN, DALLAS TX 75230
Henry A Alpert director
Kevin F Sullivan director C/O GRIFFON CORPORATION, 712 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10019
Jerome L Coben director 5482 WILSHIRE BLVD., #1579, LOS ANGELES CA 90036
Thomas Brosig director C/O GIII APPAREL GROUP LTD, 512 SEVENTH AVE, NEW YORK NY 10018
Seth L. Kaplan officer: Sr VP, Gen. Counsel and Secy 712 FIFTH AVENUE, 18TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019