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Global Partners LP (Global Partners LP) Predictability Rank


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What is Global Partners LP Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Global Partners LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Global Partners LP Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Global Partners LP (Global Partners LP) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Global Partners LP (NYSE:GLP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
GEL LPG DHT TNK NVGS KNTK TNP NGL TK GLNG TSX:ENB EPD ET WMB OKE MPLX KMI TSX:TRP LNG TRGP
Traded in Other Exchanges
GLPpB.PFD:USA GLPpA.PFD:USA
Address
800 South Street, P.O. Box 9161, Suite 500, Waltham, MA, USA, 02454-9161
Website
https://www.globalp.com
Global Partners LP is an us-based limited partnership that acts as a midstream logistics and marketing company. It is mainly engaged in purchasing, selling, storing and logistics of transporting petroleum and related products. The company owns and operates and control terminal networks of refined petroleum products and renewable fuels in Massachusetts, Maine, Connecticut, Vermont, and other places. It distributes gasoline and gasoline blendstocks, distillates, residual oil, renewable fuels, crude oil, natural gas and propane to wholesalers, retailers and commercial customers. The company operates through three segments i.e. Wholesale, Gasoline Distribution and Station Operations and Commercial. It generates maximum revenue from the Wholesale segment.
Executives
Global Gp Llc other: General Partner 800 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 500, WALTHAM MA 02453
Clare Mcgrory Kelly director 800 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 500, WALTHAM MA 02453
Jaime Pereira director C/O GLOBAL PARTNERS LP, 800 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 500, WALTHAM MA 02453
John T Hailer director 800 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 500, WALTHAM MA 02453
Robert J Mccool director 1629 CHINABERRY WAY, NAPLES FL 34105
Robert W Owens director
Mark Romaine officer: Chief Operating Officer 800 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 500, WALTHAM MA 02453
Gregory B. Hanson officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O GLOBAL PARTNERS LP, 800 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 500, WALTHAM MA 02453
Matthew Spencer officer: Chief Accounting Officer C/O GLOBAL PARTNERS LP, 800 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 500, WALTHAM MA 02453
Jeremy Langhorn officer: Chief Human Resources Officer C/O GLOBAL PARTNERS LP, 800 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 500, WALTHAM MA 02453
Eric Slifka director, officer: Vice Chairman, President & CEO 800 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 500, WALTHAM MA 02453
Sean T. Geary officer: Chief Legal Officer & Sec. 800 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 500, WALTHAM MA 02453
Alfred A. Slifka 1990 Trust Under Article Ii-a 10 percent owner C/O NUTTER MCCLENNEN & FISH LLP, 155 SEAPORT BOULEVARD, BOSTON MA 02110
Richard Slifka director, 10 percent owner 800 SOUTH STREET, SUITE 500, WALTHAM MA 02453
David K Mckown director EATON VANCE MANAGEMENT, BOSTON MA 02110