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Guggenheim Strategic Opportunities Fund (Guggenheim Strategic Opportunities Fund) Predictability Rank


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What is Guggenheim Strategic Opportunities Fund Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Guggenheim Strategic Opportunities Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Guggenheim Strategic Opportunities Fund Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Guggenheim Strategic Opportunities Fund's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Guggenheim Strategic Opportunities Fund (Guggenheim Strategic Opportunities Fund) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Guggenheim Strategic Opportunities Fund (NYSE:GOF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
ECAT CLM BIGZ EVT BMEZ BCAT GSBD GAB NAC BTT BLK BX OSTO:INVE A TSX:BN KKR APO BK AMP XSWX:PGHN LSE:III
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
227 West Monroe Street, 7th Floor, Chicago, IL, USA, 60606
Website
https://www.guggenheiminvestments.com
Guggenheim Strategic Opportunities Fund is a diversified, closed-end management investment company. The investment objective of the firm is to maximize total return through a combination of current income and capital appreciation. The Fund seeks to combine a credit-managed fixed-income portfolio with access to a diversified pool of alternative investments and equity strategies.
Executives
Randall C Barnes director, other: Trustee 2455 CORPORATE WEST DRIVE, LISLE IL 60187
Angela Brock-kyle director, other: Trustee 3700 COLONNADE PARKWAY, BIRMINGHAM AL 35243
Toupin Ronald E Jr director, other: Trustee 117 ASHLAND AVENUE, RIVER FOREST IL 60305
Hollowell Iii Orenzo Perry other: Portfolio Manager 330 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
William Rehder officer: Assistant Vice President 227 W MONROE STREET, CHICAGO IL 60606
Lydon Thomas F Jr director, other: Trustee
Sandra G Sponem director, other: Trustee 800 NICOLLET MALL, J1012057, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402-7020
Evan Loring Serdensky other: Portfolio Manager 227 WEST MONROE STREET, CHICAGO IL 60606
B. Scott Minerd other: Chief Investment Officer 2455 CORPORATE WEST DRIVE, LISLE IL 60532
Roman Iii Friedrich director, other: Trustee and Chairman 920-800 WEST PENDER STREET, VANCOUVER A1 V6C 2V6
Maynard F. Oliverius director, other: Trustee 2455 CORPORATE WEST DRIVE, LISLE IL 60532
Jon Szafran officer: Assistant Treasurer 227 W. MONROE STREET, CHICAGO IL 60606
Adam Bloch other: portfolio manager 2455 CORPORATE WEST DRIVE, LISLE IL 60532
Brian E. Binder officer: President and CEO C/O ANJIE LAROCCA, DEUTSCHE BANK, 60 WALL STREET, NEW YORK NY 11752
Keith David Kemp officer: Assistant Treasurer MACQUARIE FUND ADVISER LLC, 125 WEST 55TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10019