What is Goldrich Mining Co Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Goldrich Mining Co Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Goldrich Mining Co (Goldrich Mining Co) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
2525 East 29th Avenue, Suite 10B-160, Spokane, WA, USA, 99223-4942
Goldrich Mining Co is a gold exploration and development company, which is engaged in the acquisition and exploration of mineral properties. The group explores gold and focuses on Chandalar property covering approximately 22,858 acres located to the north of Fairbanks, Alaska. The Chandalar is located in north-central Alaska, which is considered a tier-one jurisdiction world wide and host to multiple world-class gold mines and deposits, including the Fort Knox mine, Donlin Creek deposit, and Pebble deposit. Goldrich geographically operates through the region of Alaska, U.S, and derives the majority of its revenue from the sale of gold.
Executives
| Ted Riley Sharp |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
714 WHISPERWOOD COURT, NAMPA ID 83686 |
| William Orchow |
director |
87 P STREET, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84103 |
| William V Schara |
director |
3221 S REBECCA STREET, SPOKANE WA 99223 |
| Nicholas Gallagher |
10 percent owner |
5 CHURCHFIELDS, THE K CLUB, STRAFFAN, KILDARE L2 0000 |
| David Atkinson |
director, 10 percent owner |
2754 NW CROSSING DRIVE, SUITE 205, BEND OR 97701 |
| Stephen M Vincent |
director |
255 MAPLE HILL ROAD, HOPKINS MN 55343 |
| Michael Grant Rasmussen |
director |
17412 N. MEADOVIEW LANE, NINE MILE FALLS WA 99026 |
| Garrick Allen Mendham |
director |
P. O. BOX 668, KINGSFORD NSW C3 2032 |
| Regent Pacific Group Ltd |
10 percent owner |
SUITE 1001, HENLEY BUILDING, 5 QUEENS'S ROAD CENTRAL, HONG KONG K3 00000 |
| Charles G Bigelow |
director |
11562 DISCOVERY HEIGHTS CIRCLE, ANCHORAGE AK 99515 |
| Kenneth S Eickerman |
director |
|
| Forza Capital Management, L.l.c. |
director, 10 percent owner |
2754 NW CROSSING DRIVE, SUITE 205, BEND OR 97701 |
| Rab Special Situations (master) Fund Ltd |
10 percent owner |
P.O. BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-1104 |
| Rodney Alan Blakestad |
officer: VP - exploration |
1602 W. PLACITA SIN NIEVE, SAHUARITA AZ 85629 |
| Robert G Pate |
officer: VP Operations |
8620 E PARKSIDE LANE, SPOKANE WA 99217 |
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