Guerrilla RF (Guerrilla RF) Predictability Rank

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What is Guerrilla RF Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Guerrilla RF Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Guerrilla RF (Guerrilla RF) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Guerrilla RF Inc (OTCPK:GUER) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2000 Pisgah Church Road, Greensboro, NC, USA, 27455

Website

https://www.guerrilla-rf.com

Guerrilla RF Inc is a fabless semiconductor company. It is developing high-performance MMICs (monolithic microwave integrated circuits) products for wireless connectivity. The group has a portfolio of over 100 high-performance radio frequency (RF) and microwave semiconductor devices. Its product line includes ultra-low noise amplifiers, gain blocks, driver amplifiers, mixers, RF switches, digital step attenuators (DSAs), and linear power amplifiers (PAs). The company has developed and released two low noise gain blocks targeting automotive Sirius XM satellite radio applications.

Executives

Salem Investment Partners V, Limited Partnership	10 percent owner	7900 TRIAD CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 333, GREENSBORO NC 27409
Mark Alan Mason	officer: Chief Operating Officer	682 INVERNESS DR., WINSTON SALEM NC 27107
Ryan Michael Pratt	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	5686 GREEN DALE CT, SUMMERFIELD NC 27358
William J Pratt	director
Virginia R Summerell	director	6 INDEPENDENCE CT, GREENSBORO NC 27408
Susan Berish Barkal	director	311 PELHAM FALLS DRIVE, GREER SC 29651
Kellie Hyon-ok Chong	officer: Chief Business Officer	6021 BECKENHAM WAY, OAK RIDGE NC 27310
Jeffery Scott Broxson	officer: Vice President of Sales	1105 BERKLEY MANOR WAY, #2C, GREENSBORO NC 27409
John Alen Berg	officer: Chief Financial Officer	6316 POPLAR FOREST DRIVE, SUMMERFIELD NC 27358
Dunn James E. Jr.	director	300 N. GREENE STREET, SUITE 2195, GREENSBORO NC 27401
Alvin M. Bodford	10 percent owner	1501 HIGHWOODS BOULEVARD, SUITE 302, GREENSBORO NC 27410
Funchess Samuel William Sr.	director	6807 POPLAR GROVE TRAIL, GREENSBORO NC 27410
David B Bell	director	1001 MURPHY RANCH ROAD, MILPITAS CA 95035
Gregory J Thompson	director	19 SNOWGOOSE COVE, GREENSBORO NC 27455
Smith Gary L /nc/	director

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