The Hain Celestial Group (The Hain Celestial Group) Predictability Rank

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What is The Hain Celestial Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

The Hain Celestial Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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The Hain Celestial Group (The Hain Celestial Group) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » The Hain Celestial Group Inc (NAS:HAIN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

HF1:Germany HF1:Germany

Address

4600 Sleepytime Drive, Co, Boulder, DE, USA, 80301

Website

https://www.hain.com

The Hain Celestial Group Inc makes better-for-you natural and organic food and personal-care products. Some of the company's majority-recognized U.S. brands (55% of fiscal 2022 sales) are Celestial Seasonings, Terra, Garden of Eatin', Sensible Portions, Greek Gods yogurt, and Earth's baby food. Hain also maintains several brands in the U.K. (26% of sales), such as Ella's Kitchen baby food, New Covent Garden soup, Linda McCartney's plant-based meats, Sun-Pat nut butter, and Hartley's jams and gelatins. Its products can be found in traditional grocery stores, natural foods supermarkets, specialty health stores, mass-market retailers, club warehouses, drugstores, convenience stores, restaurants, and e-commerce sites.

Executives

Dawn M. Zier	director	600 OFFICE CENTER DRIVE, FORT WASHINGTON PA 19034
Carlyn R. Taylor	director	5215 N. O'CONNOR BLVD., SUITE 2300, IRVING TX 75039
Wendy P Davidson	director, officer: President and CEO	2210 WEST OAKLAWN DRIVE, SPRINGDALE AR 72762
Steven R. Golliher	officer: Global Ch Supply Chain Officer	C/O THE HAIN CELESTIAL GROUP, INC., 4600 SLEEPYTIME DRIVE, BOULDER CO 80301
Lee A. Boyce	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O THE HAIN CELESTIAL GROUP, INC., 4600 SLEEPYTIME DRIVE, BOULDER CO 80301
Neil Campbell	director	C/O THE HAIN CELESTIAL GROUP, INC., 4600 SLEEPYTIME DRIVE, BOULDER CO 80301
Michael Ragusa	officer: SVP, Chief Accounting Officer	200 LIBERTY STREET, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10281
Mark L. Schiller	officer: President and CEO	C/O THE HAIN CELESTIAL GROUP, INC., 1111 MARCUS AVENUE, LAKE SUCCESS NY 11042
Ameet Kumar	officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer	606 CANTERFIELD PKWY W, WEST DUNDEE IL 60118
Glenn W. Welling	director	610 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 950, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Chris Bellairs	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	2711 NORTH HASKELL AVENUE, SUITE 3400, DALLAS TX 75204
David Karch	officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer	HARMAN INTERNATIONAL, 1101 PENNSYLVANIA AVE, NW, SUITE 1010, WASHINGTON DC 20004
Wolfgang Goldenitsch	officer: CEO, International	C/O THE HAIN CELESTIAL GROUP, INC., 1111 MARCUS AVENUE, LAKE SUCCESS NY 11042
Engaged Capital Llc	10 percent owner	610 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 950, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Engaged Capital Co-invest Vi-d, L.p.	other: See Footnote 1	610 NEWPORT CENTER DRIVE, SUITE 250, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660