What is Halozyme Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
1 (5)
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Halozyme Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Halozyme Therapeutics (Halozyme Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
12390 El Camino Real, San Diego, CA, USA, 92130
Halozyme Therapeutics Inc is a biotechnology company focused on developing and commercializing novel oncology therapies. The company seeks to create therapies focused on human enzymes that alter tumors. Halozyme utilizes a strategy that focuses on developing its own proprietary products in therapeutic areas with significant unmet medical needs, with a focus on oncology, and licensing its technology to biopharmaceutical companies to collaboratively develop products. The company's operations are based in the United States, with minimal long-lived assets located internationally.
Executives
| Michael J. Labarre |
officer: SVP, Chief Technical Officer |
11388 SORRENTO VALLEY ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Helen Torley |
director, officer: President and CEO |
C/O ONYX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 249 EAST GRAND AVE., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080 |
| James M Daly |
director |
INCYTE CORPORATION EXPERIMENTAL STATION, RTE 141 & HENRY CLAY RD. BLDG E336, WILMINGTON DE 19880 |
| Jeffrey William Henderson |
director |
7000 CARDINAL PLACE, DUBLIN OH 43017 |
| Nicole Labrosse |
officer: SVP, Chief Financial Officer |
11388 SORRENTO VALLEY ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Barbara Gayle Duncan |
director |
C/O INTERCEPT PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 18 DESBROSSES STREET, NEW YORK NY 10013 |
| Matthew L. Posard |
director |
11099 N. TORREY PINES ROAD, SUITE 100, LA JOLLA CA 92037 |
| Akiko Moni Miyashita |
director |
20725 S. WESTERN AVENUE, SUITE 136, TORRANCE CA 90501 |
| Mark Howard Snyder |
officer: SVP, General Counsel |
11388 SORRENTO VALLEY ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Matsui Connie |
director |
3030 CALLAN RD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Jean-pierre Bizzari |
director |
235 LAUREL LN, HAVERFOLD PA 19041 |
| Kenneth J Kelley |
director |
1331 HILLVIEW DRIVE, MENLO PARK CA 94025 |
| Elaine D Sun |
officer: SVP, Chief Financial Officer |
11388 SORRENTO VALLEY ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Masaru Matsuda |
officer: SVP, General Counsel |
11388 SORRENTO VALLEY ROAD, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
| Benjamin Hickey |
officer: SVP, Chief Commerical Officer |
C/O MIRATI THERAPEUTICS, 9393 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE SUITE 200, SAN DIEGO CA 92121 |
Quick Browse
Personalize
Premium Gurus 
Create New Portfolio
Portfolio Contest
HALO has been successfully added to your