HBT Financial (HBT Financial) Predictability Rank

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What is HBT Financial Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

HBT Financial Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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HBT Financial (HBT Financial) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » HBT Financial Inc (NAS:HBT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

401 North Hershey Road, Bloomington, IL, USA, 61704

Website

https://ir.hbtfinancial.com

HBT Financial Inc provides a comprehensive suite of business, commercial, wealth management and retail banking products and services to individuals, businesses, and municipal entities throughout Central and Northeastern Illinois and Eastern Iowa. It operates through one reportable segment: community banking.

Executives

Patrick F Busch	director, officer: EVP & Chief Lending Officer	401 N. HERSHEY ROAD, BLOOMINGTON IL 61702
Roger A Baker	director	401 NORTH HERSHEY ROAD, BLOOMINGTON IL 61704
Eric E Burwell	director	401 N. HERSHEY ROAD, BLOOMINGTON IL 61702
Linda J. Koch	director	401 NORTH HERSHEY ROAD, BLOOMINGTON IL 61704
Peter Robert Chapman	officer: EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT	C/O GREAT WESTERN BANCORP, INC., 100 NORTH PHILLIPS AVE., SIOUX FALLS SD 57104
Fred L Drake	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer	401 N. HERSHEY ROAD, BLOOMINGTON IL 61702
Diane H Lanier	officer: EVP and Chief Retail Officer	401 N. HERSEY ROAD, BLOOMINGTON IL 61702
Gerald E Pfeiffer	director	401 N. HERSHEY ROAD, BLOOMINGTON IL 61702
James Lance Carter	director, officer: See Remarks	401 N. HERSHEY ROAD, BLOOMINGTON IL 61702
Andrea E Zurkamer	officer: SVP & Chief Risk Officer	401 N. HERSEY ROAD, BLOOMINGTON IL 61702
C. Alvin Bowman	director	401 N. HERSHEY ROAD, BLOOMINGTON IL 61702
Dale S Strassheim	director	401 N. HERSHEY ROAD, BLOOMINGTON IL 61702
Matthew J Doherty	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	401 N. HERSEY ROAD, BLOOMINGTON IL 61702
Lawrence J Horvath	officer: See Remarks	401 N. HERSEY ROAD, BLOOMINGTON IL 61702
Larry J Kallembach	officer: See Remarks	401 N. HERSEY ROAD, BLOOMINGTON IL 61702