Holly Energy Partners LP (Holly Energy Partners LP) Predictability Rank

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What is Holly Energy Partners LP Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Holly Energy Partners LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Holly Energy Partners LP (Holly Energy Partners LP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Holly Energy Partners LP (NYSE:HEP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

VNOM NS INSW STNG GLNG HESM PAGP KNTK LPG TNK TSX:ENB EPD ET WMB LNG OKE KMI TSX:TRP MPLX CQP

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

2828 N. Harwood, Suite 1300, Dallas, TX, USA, 75201-1507

Website

http://www.hollyenergy.com

Holly Energy Partners LP operates a network of refined products and crude oil pipelines, with attendant terminal assets, in several western and southwestern states. The company has two reportable segments namely Pipelines and Terminals and Refinery Processing Unit. It generates maximum revenue from the Pipelines and Terminals segment.

Executives

Robert I Jamieson	officer: SVP and COO	2828 N. HARWOOD ST., SUITE 1300, DALLAS TX 75201
Mark A Petersen	director	550 EAST SOUTH TEMPLE, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84102
Hf Sinclair Corp	10 percent owner, other: See remarks	2828 N. HARWOOD, SUITE 1300, DALLAS TX 75201
Sinclair Companies	10 percent owner	550 EAST SOUTH TEMPLE, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84102
Carol Holding	10 percent owner	550 EAST SOUTH TEMPLE, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84102
James H Lee	director	10000 MEMORIAL DRIVE STE 600, HOUSTON TX 77024-3411
Larry R Baldwin	director	2828 N. HARWOOD STREET, SUITE 1300, DALLAS TX 75201
Michael Jennings	director	10000 MEMORIAL DRIVE, SUITE 600, HOUSTON TX 77024
Kenneth Norwood	officer: VP and Controller	2828 N. HARWOOD, SUITE 1300, DALLAS TX 75201
Harrison John Wayne Jr	officer: SVP, CFO and Treasurer	2828 N. HARWOOD ST., SUITE 1300, DALLAS TX 75201
Vaishali S. Bhatia	officer: SVP, General Counsel & Sec	2828 N. HARWOOD ST., SUITE 1300, DALLAS TX 75201
Eric L Mattson	director	C/O REX ENERGY CORP, 366 WALKER DRIVE, STATE COLLEGE PA 16801
Christine B Lafollette	director	2828 N. HARWOOD, SUITE 1300, DALLAS X1 75201
Richard Kevin Hardage	director	2626 COLE AVE SUITE 705, DALLAS TX 75209
Holly Refining & Marketing Co - Woods Cross Llc	other: See Footnotes	2828 N. HARWOOD, SUITE 1300, DALLAS TX 75201