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China Best Group Holding (HKSE:00370) Predictability Rank


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What is China Best Group Holding Predictability Rank?

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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

China Best Group Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

China Best Group Holding Predictability Rank Related Terms

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China Best Group Holding (HKSE:00370) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » China Best Group Holding Ltd (HKSE:00370) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:00653 HKSE:01280 HKSE:00104 HKSE:06033 HKSE:01939 HKSE:00814 HKSE:01759 HKSE:08473 HKSE:01545 HKSE:00915 ORLY TSX:ATD AZO TSCO SHSE:601888 WSM ULTA DKS BBY CASY
Traded in Other Exchanges
EFO3:Germany
Address
The Gateway, Harbour City, Suite 1901-2 & 14, 19th Floor, Tower 6, Kowloon, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
http://www.cbgroup.com.hk
China Best Group Holding Ltd is a China-based company having various business segments. Trading of goods including radio systems and electronic appliances which is the key revenue driver; Finance leasing of plant and machinery; Money lending; Securities and futures brokerage segment engages in securities and futures dealing services in Hong Kong; International air and sea freight forwarding and logistic services to customers in Singapore and the USA; Securities trading of equity securities and dividend income from held for trading investments; Property investment for rental income and capital appreciation in PRC; Building architecture and interior design services; Property brokerage and agency service,Geothermal energy, Customised technical support segment and Centralised heating segment.
Executives
Ping Pacific Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Yeung Yat Ping 2101 Beneficial owner
South Leader Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Li Meng Zhe 2101 Beneficial owner
Max Kensho Capital Group Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Sunbow Int'l Enterprise Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Wang Baoning 2101 Beneficial owner
Li Meng Zhe 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Wang Yicheng 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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