Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Group (HKSE:00460) Predictability Rank

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What is Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Group (HKSE:00460) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Group Ltd (HKSE:00460) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

SHPHF:USA

Address

Zhubang 2000 Business Centre, 22nd Floor, Building 4, West Balizhuang, Chaoyang District, Beijing, CHN, 100025

Website

https://www.sihuanpharm.com

Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Group Ltd is an investment holding company. Along with its subsidiaries, the company is engaged in the research & development and the manufacture & sale of pharmaceutical products. Its portfolio comprises products for diseases related to the cardio-cerebral vascular (CCV) system, Digestive System, Anti-Infective, metabolism, Respiratory, Neurology, and Others. The group has three reportable segments: the medical aesthetic products segment including the filling, shaping, supporting, supplementing, optoelectronic device, body sculpturing, skincare, and others to provide non- or minimally invasive medical aesthetics comprehensive solutions; the innovative medicine and other medicine segments; and the generic medicine segment.

Executives

Che Fengsheng	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Guo Weicheng	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Meng Xianhui	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zhang Jionglong	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Mingyao Capital Limited	2401 A concert party to an agreement to buy shares
Network Victory Limited	2401 A concert party to an agreement to buy shares
Proper Process International Limited	2401 A concert party to an agreement to buy shares
Successmax Global Holdings Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Victory Faith International Limited	2401 A concert party to an agreement to buy shares
Ubs Tc (jersey) Ltd	2301 Trustee
Ubs Trustees (cayman) Ltd.	2301 Trustee
Smart Top Overseas Limited	2501 Other
Plenty Gold Enterprises Limited	2307 Founder of a discretionary trust who can infl

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