United Energy Group (HKSE:00467) Predictability Rank

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What is United Energy Group Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

United Energy Group Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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United Energy Group (HKSE:00467) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » United Energy Group Ltd (HKSE:00467) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

UNEGF:USA 1UEN:Germany

Address

Two Pacific Place, 88 Queensway, Admiralty, Suite 2505, 25th Floor, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

http://www.uegl.com.hk

United Energy Group Ltd is principally engaged in the investment and operation of upstream oil, natural gas, and other energy-related businesses. Geographically, the firm has operational footprints in Pakistan, Singapore, Egypt, and Iraq. Though the company generates majority of its revenue in Pakistan, Its oil and natural gas resources are the primary sources of revenue.

Executives

He Fu International Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Huilan Investment Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Ming Ze Dong Fang Tou Zi You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Dong Fang Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zhang Hong Wei	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Dong Fang Ji Tuan Chan Ye Fa Zhan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
United Petroleum & Natural Gas Holdings Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
United Energy Holdings Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Million Fortune Enterprises Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Bei Jing Qing Long Hu Jia He Qi Ye Guan Li You Xian Gong Si	2101 Beneficial owner
Dong Fang Ji Tuan Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Dong Fang Ji Tuan Liang You Shi Pin You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Haitong Securities Co., Ltd.	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Haitong International Securities Group Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Haitong International Holdings Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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