Zhongyuan Bank Co (HKSE:01216) Predictability Rank

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What is Zhongyuan Bank Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Zhongyuan Bank Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Zhongyuan Bank Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Zhongyuan Bank Co (HKSE:01216) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Banks » Zhongyuan Bank Co Ltd (HKSE:01216) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

ZNNGY:USA

Address

No. 23 Shangwu Waihuan Road, Zhongke Golden Tower, Zhengdong New District CBD, Henan Province, Zhengzhou, CHN

Website

https://www.zybank.com.cn

Zhongyuan Bank Co Ltd is engaged in the provision of corporate banking services. The business segments of the company are the Corporate banking segment, which represents the provision of a range of financial products and services to corporations, government agencies and financial institutions. The retail banking segment represents the provision of a range of financial products and services to retail customers. The financial markets business segment covers the Group's financial markets business operations. The financial markets business enters into inter-bank money market transactions, repurchases transactions and investments. Other segments represent assets, liabilities, income and expenses which cannot be directly attributable or cannot be allocated to a segment on a reasonable basis.

Executives

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Xu Yan	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
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New Merit Group Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Goncius I Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Gold Leading Capital Limited	2106 Person having a security interest in shares
Guangzhou Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd.	2106 Person having a security interest in shares
L.r. Capital Management Company (cayman) Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Amtd Group Company Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zhongchuang Investment (holdings) Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Yingchuang International Investment Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Tian Kun Investment Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Zhong Guo Min Sheng Tou Zi Gu Fen You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Zhong Min Wei Lai Kong Gu Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Rui Pei Tou Zi Shang Hai You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

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