Kontafarma China Holdings (HKSE:01312) Predictability Rank

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What is Kontafarma China Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Kontafarma China Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Kontafarma China Holdings (HKSE:01312) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Kontafarma China Holdings Ltd (HKSE:01312) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

30 Harbour Road, Room 12A 09-20, 12th Floor, Sun Hung Kai Centre, Wanchai, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

https://www.kontafarma.com.hk

Kontafarma China Holdings Ltd is principally engaged in the manufacture and sale of prescription drugs including chemical drugs and traditional Chinese medicine in the PRC, and the operation of fitness centers, provision of fitness and health consulting services, and the operation of franchises. The operating segments include pharmaceutical business and Fitness business. Majority of its revenue derives from pharmaceutical business segment.

Executives

Ning Bo Bao Shui Qu San Jin Guo Tou Gu Quan Tou Zi Ji Jin He Huo Qi Ye You Xian He Huo	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shan Xi Jiao Tong Kong Gu Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shan Xi Jian She Tou Zi Ji Tuan You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shan Xi Sheng Ren Min Zheng Fu Guo You Zi Chan Jian Du Guan Li Wei Yuan Hui	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shan Xi Sheng Gao Su Gong Lu Ji Tuan You Xian Ze Ren Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shan Xi Sheng Guo You Zi Ben Yun Ying You Xian Gong Si Qian Cheng Shan Xi Sheng Guo You Zi Ben Tou Z	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
China Health Management Investment Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Waranty Assets Management (hk) Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Shen Zhen Shi Hua Rong Tai Zi Chan Guan Li You Xian Gong Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Resuccess Investments Limited
Thtf Energy-saving Holdings Limited

Kontafarma China Holdings (HKSE:01312) Headlines

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