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Guangdong Join-Share Financing Guarantee Investment Co (HKSE:01543) Predictability Rank


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What is Guangdong Join-Share Financing Guarantee Investment Co Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Guangdong Join-Share Financing Guarantee Investment Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Guangdong Join-Share Financing Guarantee Investment Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Guangdong Join-Share Financing Guarantee Investment Co (HKSE:01543) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Credit Services » Guangdong Join-Share Financing Guarantee Investment Co Ltd (HKSE:01543) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:02003 HKSE:03848 HKSE:00431 HKSE:03903 HKSE:01601 HKSE:08223 HKSE:00628 HKSE:00730 HKSE:06878 HKSE:06866 V MA AXP PYPL BOM:500034 COF TSE:8591 DFS XPAR:EDEN NSE:CHOLAFIN
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
No.31 Fuhua Road, Block 1, Room 4101-4110, Lecong Town, Join-Share International Financing Center, Shunde District Guangdong Province, Foshan, CHN, 528000
Website
http://www.join-share.com
Guangdong Join-Share Financing Guarantee Investment Co Ltd is a financing services provider, focusing on providing credit-based financing solutions to small and medium enterprises (SMEs) to satisfy their financing and business needs. It provides guarantees on behalf of, and entrusted loans to, SMEs and individual business proprietors. It also provides micro-lending to SMEs, individual business proprietors and individuals in Foshan. The business is distinguished into Guarantees Business and SME Lending segments. The guarantee Business segment is further divided into Financial and Non-Financial Guarantees. The Guarantee segment generates maximum revenue for the company. Geographically, the firm operates in the People's Republic of China.
Executives
Dragon Pearl Hong Kong Investment Development Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Wu Zhi Jian 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Hong Kong Wellknown Development Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
Lo Kai Bong 2101 Beneficial owner
Lee Su Hwei 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lee Seng Huang 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Apac Resources Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Allied Group Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Lee Seng Hui 2103 Interests held jointly with another person
Shk Finance Limited 2106 Person having a security interest in shares
United Asia Finance Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Sun Hung Kai & Co. Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Li Shen Hua 2101 Beneficial owner
True Faith International Enterprise Limited 2101 Beneficial owner
True Faith Holdings (hong Kong) Limited 2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you

Guangdong Join-Share Financing Guarantee Investment Co (HKSE:01543) Headlines

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