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Beijing Urban Construction Design & Development Group Co (HKSE:01599) Predictability Rank


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What is Beijing Urban Construction Design & Development Group Co Predictability Rank?

4 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Beijing Urban Construction Design & Development Group Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Beijing Urban Construction Design & Development Group Co Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Beijing Urban Construction Design & Development Group Co (HKSE:01599) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Beijing Urban Construction Design & Development Group Co Ltd (HKSE:01599) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
HKSE:00331 HKSE:02355 HKSE:09913 HKSE:01977 HKSE:01726 HKSE:01183 HKSE:01780 HKSE:00240 HKSE:01499 HKSE:02236 XPAR:DG NSE:LT SHSE:601668 PWR SHSE:601390 J TSX:WSP HKSE:01800 SHSE:601186 XKRX:028260
Traded in Other Exchanges
BDG:Germany
Address
No. 248 Queen’s Road East, 40th Floor, Dah Sing Financial Centre, Wanchai, Hong Kong, HKG
Website
https://www.bjucd.com
Beijing Urban Construction Design & Development Group Co Ltd is a state-owned professional survey and design institute founded specifically for the survey and design of Beijing Subway Line. The company is engaged in design, survey and consultancy services for urban rail transit and urban rail transit related industrial and civil construction and municipal engineering projects; and construction contracting services for urban rail transit and the service concession arrangements under the build-operate-transfer arrangements. It operates in two business segments, including the Design, Survey and Consultancy segment as well as the Construction Contracting segment.
Executives
Amundi Asset Management 2102 Investment manager
Amundi Ireland Ltd 2102 Investment manager
Jing Tou Xiang Gang You Xian Gong Si 2101 Beneficial owner
Bei Jing Shi Ji Chu She Shi Tou Zi You Xian Gong Si 2101 Beneficial owner

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