Wan Kei Group Holdings (HKSE:01718) Predictability Rank

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What is Wan Kei Group Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Wan Kei Group Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Wan Kei Group Holdings (HKSE:01718) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Construction » Wan Kei Group Holdings Ltd (HKSE:01718) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

No. 288 Hennessy Road, Unit No. 07, 16th Floor Emperor Group Centre, Wanchai, Hong Kong, HKG

Website

http://www.hkex1718.hk

Wan Kei Group Holdings Ltd is an engineering and construction company. It is engaged in the provision of foundation works including mini piles, pipe piles, and king posts. It also offers socketed steel, driven piles, and pre-drilling works. The operating business segments are Foundation Construction, Ground Investigation Services, Trading of beauty and skin care products and Financial Services. The Foundation construction segment provides foundation construction works to customers in Hong Kong, the Ground investigation services segment provides ground investigation services to customers in Hong Kong, Financial services segment provides investment, financing, and moneylending services. The company derives revenue mainly from the Foundation construction segment.

Executives

Ample Cheer Limited	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Kingston Finance Limited	2106 Person having a security interest in shares
Chu Yuet Wah	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Samwood Global Limited	2103 Interests held jointly with another person
Suntecli Company Limited	2101 Beneficial owner
Chan Sui Yau	2202 Interest of your spouse
Fong Hon Hung	2103 Interests held jointly with another person
Kwong Sui Sim	2202 Interest of your spouse
Lau Woon Si	2201 Interest of corporation controlled by you
Leung Man Lun Stephen	2103 Interests held jointly with another person
So Choi	2202 Interest of your spouse
Coast International Asset Management Limited	2102 Investment manager

Wan Kei Group Holdings (HKSE:01718) Headlines

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